Tuesday, January 18, 2011

US Nationals Preview: Senior Men Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior men competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some large disparities in scores for certain skaters from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each skaters top short program score and top free skate score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each skater matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would rise to the top if each man would happen to match his season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Adam Rippon: 77.53 (SC) + 155.51 (SC) = 233.04
Jeremy Abbott: 77.61 (CR) + 143.57 (NHK) = 221.18
Richard Dornbush: 70.75 (JGP Final) + 148.871 (JGP Final) = 219.56
Brandon Mroz: 72.46 (TEB) + 146.96 (CC) = 219.42
Armin Mahbanoozadeh: 67.61 (SA) + 143.56 (SA) = 211.17
Ross Miner: 67.10 (CC) + 130.03 (CC) = 197.13
Joshua Farris: 67.03 (JGP Romania) + 127.96 (JGP Great Britain) = 194.98
Keegan Messing: 68.52 (JGP Final) + 122.05 (JGP Romania) = 190.57
Grant Hochstein: 56.98 (SC) + 124.76 (SC) = 181.65 
Jason Brown: 58.00 (JGP France)122.57 (JGP France) = 180.57

Jeremy Abbott: 74.92 (NHK) + 139.60 (CR) = 214.52
Brandon Mroz: 69.84 (CC) + 141.85 (TEB) = 211.69
Armin Mahbanoozadeh: 67.61 (SA) + 143.56 (SA) = 211.17
Adam Rippon: 73.94 (SA) + 129.18 (SA) = 203.12
Ross Miner: 64.85 (NHK) + 121.77 (NHK) = 186.62
Grant Hochstein: 56.98 (SC) + 124.76 (SC) = 181.65
Joshua Farris: 59.79 (JGP Great Britain) + 108.73 (JGP Final) = 168.52
Keegan Messing: 61.53 (JGP Czech) + 106.90 (JGP Final) = 168.43
Jason Brown: 57.12 (JGP Japan) + 110.15 (JGP Japaan) = 167.28
Richard Dornbush: 52.74 (JGP Austria) + 109.16 (JGP Austria) = 161.90

Because there is some variation in the placements when skaters have performed their best and when they have performed there worst, here are some notable factors to consider:
  • Jeremy Abbott has been fighting boot issues all season so if he has resolved them, his scores should go up at Nationals
  • Brandon Mroz' scores have all been withing 5 points of each other, showing that his is pretty consistent and that may just be the biggest factor in who wins the Men's title in Greensboro
  • Adam Rippon has a big point gap which shows he has moments of greatness and moments of weakness so we'll see which shines through next week
  • Richard Dornbush has a huge point gap from his Grand Prix assignments to his score at the final which either suggests that he is a one hit wonder or that he is steadily building momentum throughout the season and will put up a gigantic number in Greensboro
  • Armin Mahbanoozadeh performed way better than expected at Skate America and because he was not assigned another Grand Prix, only time will tell if his bronze medal was a fluke or a sign of better things to come
  • Ryan Bradley did not compete on the Grand Prix this season, but he will certainly be a threat in Greensboro

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