2011 ISU World Junior Championships: Men's Short Program Results & Free Skate Starting Order

The Men's short program from World Juniors took place late last night/early this morning and Keegan Messing of the USA has a nice lead of over 3.5 points going into his free skate which is packed with high scoring technical elements. Below are the detailed results of the mens' short program and below. Scroll down further to see the starting order for the free skate.

Pl.	Name	Nation	TSS =	TES +		PCS +	SS	TR	PE	CH	IN	Ded. -	StN.
1	Keegan MESSING	USA	72.58	41.07		31.51	6.61	6.00	6.36	6.18	6.36	0.00	#27
2	Artur DMITRIEV	RUS	68.91	38.90		30.01	6.11	5.64	6.11	6.11	6.04	0.00	#28
3	Andrei ROGOZINE	CAN	67.27	37.59		29.68	6.11	5.61	6.00	6.00	5.96	0.00	#30
4	Alexander MAJOROV	SWE	67.12	37.83		29.29	5.82	5.43	5.79	6.04	6.21	0.00	#20
5	Max AARON	USA	66.96	38.07		28.89	6.00	5.43	5.96	5.75	5.75	0.00	#16
6	Keiji TANAKA	JPN	64.06	35.81		28.25	5.93	5.32	5.71	5.75	5.54	0.00	#8
7	Jason BROWN	USA	62.64	34.07		28.57	5.89	5.46	5.79	5.79	5.64	0.00	#3
8	Han YAN	CHN	60.89	31.96		28.93	6.07	5.50	5.89	5.79	5.68	0.00	#21
9	Abzal RAKIMGALIEV	KAZ	60.48	33.65		26.83	5.43	4.79	5.36	5.61	5.64	0.00	#26
10	Zhan BUSH	RUS	59.58	31.40		28.18	5.79	5.25	5.64	5.79	5.71	0.00	#29
11	Stanislav PERTSOV	UKR	58.79	32.66		26.13	5.46	4.89	5.32	5.25	5.21	0.00	#15
12	Ryuichi KIHARA	JPN	58.75	30.96		27.79	5.86	5.29	5.68	5.50	5.46	0.00	#14
13	Jorik HENDRICKX	BEL	57.89	30.74		27.15	5.61	5.18	5.50	5.43	5.43	0.00	#25
14	Gordei GORSHKOV	RUS	56.37	27.65		29.72	6.00	5.82	5.79	6.07	6.04	1.00	#22
15	Kento NAKAMURA	JPN	55.33	27.12		29.21	6.04	5.57	5.64	5.96	6.00	1.00	#23
16	Jiaxing LIU	CHN	54.88	27.49		27.39	5.79	5.14	5.61	5.46	5.39	0.00	#24
17	Petr COUFAL	CZE	52.70	27.67		25.03	5.14	4.71	5.07	5.07	5.04	0.00	#13
18	Vitali LUCHANOK	BLR	51.27	29.44		21.83	4.54	4.11	4.39	4.54	4.25	0.00	#2
19	Romain PONSART	FRA	50.92	25.91		26.01	5.36	4.79	5.07	5.36	5.43	1.00	#17
20	Bela PAPP	FIN	49.77	27.06		22.71	4.71	4.32	4.61	4.64	4.43	0.00	#7
21	Viktor ROMANENKOV	EST	49.63	26.55		23.08	4.79	4.36	4.61	4.75	4.57	0.00	#9
22	Denis WIECZOREK	GER	48.75	24.00		24.75	5.18	4.61	5.00	5.00	4.96	0.00	#19
23	Kamil BIALAS	POL	46.93	23.93		23.00	4.75	4.32	4.64	4.68	4.61	0.00	#12
24	Liam FIRUS	CAN	46.90	21.47		26.43	5.39	5.11	5.04	5.50	5.39	1.00	#18
25	Tomi PULKKINEN	SUI	46.82	23.67		23.15	4.86	4.29	4.61	4.71	4.68	0.00	#6
26	Saverio GIACOMELLI	ITA	46.65	24.26		22.39	4.68	4.14	4.50	4.57	4.50	0.00	#4
27	Ondrej SPIEGL	SWE	44.83	21.94		22.89	4.68	4.50	4.46	4.61	4.64	0.00	#11
28	Jordan JU	TPE	43.95	23.06		20.89	4.50	3.93	4.21	4.18	4.07	0.00	#10
29	Francesc PALAU	ESP	43.49	21.64		21.85	4.46	4.07	4.43	4.46	4.43	0.00	#1
30	Dong-Won LEE	KOR	42.25	20.43		21.82	4.75	4.11	4.32	4.39	4.25	0.00	#5

StN.	Name	Nation	Rank	Points
	Warm-Up Group 1
1	Kamil BIALAS	POL	23	46.93
2	Denis WIECZOREK	GER	22	48.75
3	Bela PAPP	FIN	20	49.77
4	Romain PONSART	FRA	19	50.92
5	Liam FIRUS	CAN	24	46.90
6	Viktor ROMANENKOV	EST	21	49.63
	Warm-Up Group 2
7	Petr COUFAL	CZE	17	52.70
8	Jiaxing LIU	CHN	16	54.88
9	Gordei GORSHKOV	RUS	14	56.37
10	Kento NAKAMURA	JPN	15	55.33
11	Jorik HENDRICKX	BEL	13	57.89
12	Vitali LUCHANOK	BLR	18	51.27
	Warm-Up Group 3
13	Ryuichi KIHARA	JPN	12	58.75
14	Abzal RAKIMGALIEV	KAZ	9	60.48
15	Stanislav PERTSOV	UKR	11	58.79
16	Han YAN	CHN	8	60.89
17	Jason BROWN	USA	7	62.64
18	Zhan BUSH	RUS	10	59.58
	Warm-Up Group 4
19	Alexander MAJOROV	SWE	4	67.12
20	Artur DMITRIEV	RUS	2	68.91
21	Keiji TANAKA	JPN	6	64.06
22	Keegan MESSING	USA	1	72.58
23	Max AARON	USA	5	66.96
24	Andrei ROGOZINE	CAN	3	67.27

US Nationals Preview: Senior Men Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior men competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some large disparities in scores for certain skaters from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each skaters top short program score and top free skate score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each skater matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would rise to the top if each man would happen to match his season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIOS
Adam Rippon: 77.53 (SC) + 155.51 (SC) = 233.04
Jeremy Abbott: 77.61 (CR) + 143.57 (NHK) = 221.18
Richard Dornbush: 70.75 (JGP Final) + 148.871 (JGP Final) = 219.56
Brandon Mroz: 72.46 (TEB) + 146.96 (CC) = 219.42
Armin Mahbanoozadeh: 67.61 (SA) + 143.56 (SA) = 211.17
Ross Miner: 67.10 (CC) + 130.03 (CC) = 197.13
Joshua Farris: 67.03 (JGP Romania) + 127.96 (JGP Great Britain) = 194.98
Keegan Messing: 68.52 (JGP Final) + 122.05 (JGP Romania) = 190.57
Grant Hochstein: 56.98 (SC) + 124.76 (SC) = 181.65 
Jason Brown: 58.00 (JGP France) + 122.57 (JGP France) = 180.57

WORST CASE SCENARIOS
Jeremy Abbott: 74.92 (NHK) + 139.60 (CR) = 214.52
Brandon Mroz: 69.84 (CC) + 141.85 (TEB) = 211.69
Armin Mahbanoozadeh: 67.61 (SA) + 143.56 (SA) = 211.17
Adam Rippon: 73.94 (SA) + 129.18 (SA) = 203.12
Ross Miner: 64.85 (NHK) + 121.77 (NHK) = 186.62
Grant Hochstein: 56.98 (SC) + 124.76 (SC) = 181.65
Joshua Farris: 59.79 (JGP Great Britain) + 108.73 (JGP Final) = 168.52
Keegan Messing: 61.53 (JGP Czech) + 106.90 (JGP Final) = 168.43
Jason Brown: 57.12 (JGP Japan) + 110.15 (JGP Japaan) = 167.28
Richard Dornbush: 52.74 (JGP Austria) + 109.16 (JGP Austria) = 161.90


Because there is some variation in the placements when skaters have performed their best and when they have performed there worst, here are some notable factors to consider:

• Jeremy Abbott has been fighting boot issues all season so if he has resolved them, his scores should go up at Nationals
• Brandon Mroz' scores have all been withing 5 points of each other, showing that his is pretty consistent and that may just be the biggest factor in who wins the Men's title in Greensboro
• Adam Rippon has a big point gap which shows he has moments of greatness and moments of weakness so we'll see which shines through next week
• Richard Dornbush has a huge point gap from his Grand Prix assignments to his score at the final which either suggests that he is a one hit wonder or that he is steadily building momentum throughout the season and will put up a gigantic number in Greensboro
• Armin Mahbanoozadeh performed way better than expected at Skate America and because he was not assigned another Grand Prix, only time will tell if his bronze medal was a fluke or a sign of better things to come
• Ryan Bradley did not compete on the Grand Prix this season, but he will certainly be a threat in Greensboro

Countdown to US Figure Skating Championships: 7 Days!

Grant Hochstein (St Clair Shores FSC)

• 2009 US Nationals Jr. 4th place
• 2009  Jr. Grand Prix Final 5th place
• 2010 US Nationals 7th
• 2010 US Collegiate Championships Champion
• 2010 Skate Canada 10th

At only 20, Grant is relatively young for a male figure skater and still has plenty of time to mature before the next Olympic run in 2014 for Sochi. For the few programs that I've seen of his, he seems to struggle with technical consistency, but he does have a lovely lyrical quality to his skating and maturity as a performer. In terms of scoring, his Skate Canada numbers put him 2nd to last in the short program among US senior men who competed internationally. However, his free skate scores and total scores put him much higher in the rankings near the likes of Keegan Messing, Jason Brown, and Ross Miner. He made an impressive senior national debut last season at 7th and he'll look to improve upon that in Greensboro by placing in the top 6.

US Nationals Preview: Senior Men's Competition

When projecting the results for Nationals, it is important to look at the skaters' results in the events leading up to Nationals. The men included in this post are the competitors that have the best chance of medaling at Nationals. Below are the scores from the 2010 Grand Prix Series, both the senior and junior circuits. I will be making my predictions and fantasy choices based on these scores and some other extenuating factors in a post to come next week. But for now, here are the top scores among US Men for the short program, free skate, and overall totals. An asterisk (*) denotes a competitor on the Junior Grand Prix circuit. Keep in mind that junior competitors have less required elements than senior competitors.

Top Short Program Scores
77.61 Jeremy Abbott (Cup of Russia)
77.53 Adam Rippon (Skate Canada)
74.92 Jeremy Abbott (NHK Trophy)
73.94 Adam Rippon (Skate America)
72.46 Brandon Mroz (Trophee Eric Bompard)
70.75* Richard Dornbush (JGP Final)
69.84 Brandon Mroz (Cup of China)
69.05* Richard Dornbush (JGP Germany)
68.52* Keegan Messing (JGP Final)
67.61 Armin Mahbanoozadeh (Skate America)
67.10 Ross Miner (Cup of China)
67.03* Joshua Farris (JGP Romania)
65.33* Keegan Messing (JGP Romania)
65.24* Joshua Farris (JGP Final)
64.85 Ross Miner (NHK Trophy)
61.53* Keegan Messing (JGP Czech Republic)
59.79* Joshua Farris (JGP Great Britain)
58.00* Jason Brown (JGP France)
57.13* Jason Brown (JGP Japan)
56.98 Grant Hochstein (Skate Canada)
52.74* Richard Dornbush (JGP Austria)

Top Free Skate Scores
155.51 Adam Rippon (Skate Canada)
148.81* Richard Dornbush (JGP Final)
146.96 Brandon Mroz (Cup of China)
143.57 Jeremy Abbott (NHK Trophy)
143.56 Armin Mahbanoozadeh (Skate America)
141.85 Brandon Mroz (Trophee Eric Bompard)
139.60 Jeremy Abbott (Cup of Russia)
130.03 Ross Miner (Cup of China)
129.18 Adam Rippon (Skate America)
127.95* Joshua Farris (JGP Great Britain)
126.18* Richard Dornbush (JGP Germany)
124.76 Grant Hochstein (Skate Canada)
122.57* Jason Brown (JGP France)
122.05* Keegan Messing (JGP Romania)
121.77 Ross Miner (NHK Trophy)
116.37* Keegan Messing (JGP Czech Republic)
112.19* Joshua Farris (JGP Romania)
110.15* Jason Brown (JGP Japan)
109.16* Richard Dornbush (JGP Austria)
108.73* Joshua Farris (JGP Final)
106.90* Keegan Messing (JGP Final)

Top Total Scores
233.04 Adam Rippon (Skate Canada)
219.56* Richard Dornbush (JGP Final)
218.19 Jeremy Abbott (NHK Trophy)
217.21 Jeremy Abbott (Cup of Russia)
216.80 Brandon Mroz (Cup of China)
214.31 Brandon Mroz (Trophee Eric Bompard)
211.17 Armin Mahbanoozadeh (Skate America)
203.12 Adam Rippon (Skate America)
197.13 Ross Miner (Cup of China)
195.23* Richard Dornbush (JGP Germany)
187.74* Joshua Farris (JGP Great Britain)
187.38* Keegan Messing (JGP Romania)
186.62 Ross Miner (NHK Trophy)
181.65 Grant Hochstein (Skate Canada)
180.57* Jason Brown (JGP France)
179.22* Joshua Farris (JGP Romania)
177.90* Keegan Messing (JGP Czech Repulic)
175.42* Keegan Messing (JGP Final)
173.97* Joshua Farris (JGP Final)
167.28* Jason Brown (JGP Japan)
161.90* Richard Dornbush (JGP Austria)

NHK TROPHY

Jeremy Abbott

• 74.62 (SP) = 36.27 (TES) + 38.35 (PCS)
• 143.57 (FS) = 67.15 (TES) + 76.42 (PCS)
• 218.19 (Total) 

Ross Miner

• 64.85 (SP) = 34.88 (TES) + 29.97 (PCS)
• 121.77 (FS) = 59.49 (TES) + 62.28 (PCS)
• 186.62 (Total)

SKATE CANADA

Adam Rippon

• 77.53 (SP) = 41.10 (TES) + 36.43 (PCS)
• 155.51 (FS) = 80.35 (TES) + 75.16 (PCS)
• 233.04 (Total)

Grant Hochstein

• 56.98 (SP) = 27.80 (TES) + 30.18 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 124.76 (FS) = 64.45 (TES) + 61.22 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 181.65 (Total)

CUP OF CHINA

Brandon Mroz

• 69.84 (SP) = 38.51 (TES) + 31.33 (PCS)
• 146.96 (FS) = 78.98 (TES) + 67.98 (PCS)
• 216.80 (Total)

Ross Miner

• 67.10 (SP) = 36.29 (TES) + 30.81 (PCS)
• 130.03 (FS) = 64.01 (TES) + 67.02 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 197.13 (Total)

SKATE AMERICA

Adam Rippon

• 73.94 (SP) = 36.83 (TES) + 37.11 (PCS)
• 129.18 (FS) = 57.94 (TES) + 72.24 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 203.12 (Total)

Armin Mahbanoozadeh

• 67.61 (SP) = 37.05 (TES) + 30.56 (PCS)
• 143.56 (FS) = 73.62 (TES) + 69.64 (PCS)
• 211.17 (Total)

CUP OF RUSSIA

Jeremy Abbott

• 77.61 (SP) = 39.07 (TES) + 38.54 (PCS)
• 139.60 (FS) = 64.26 (TES) + 77.34 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)
• 217.21 (Total)

TROPHEE ERIC BOMPARD

Brandon Mroz

• 72.46 (SP) = 40.53 (TES) + 31.93 (PCS)
• 141.85 (FS) = 76.05 (TES) + 65.80 (PCS)
• 214.31 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF FRANCE

Jason Brown

• 58.00 (SP) = 30.79 (TES) + 28.21 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 122.57 (FS) = 62.73 (TES) + 59.84 (PCS)
• 180.57 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF ROMANIA

Keegan Messing

• 65.33 (SP) = 34.51 (TES) + 30.82 (PCS)
• 122.05 (FS) = 61.55 (TES) + 62.50 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)
• 187.38 (Total)

Joshua Farris

• 67.03 (SP) = 38.56 (TES) + 28.47 (PCS)
• 112.19 (FS) = 59.63 (TES) + 55.56 (PCS) -3.00 (DED)
• 179.22 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF AUSTRIA

Richard Dornbush

• 52.74 (SP) = 26.02 (TES) + 26.72 (PCS)
• 109.16 (FS) = 53.94 (TES) + 55.22 (PCS)
• 161.90 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF JAPAN

Jason Brown

• 57.13 (SP) = 29.09 (TES) + 28.04 (PCS)
• 110.15 (FS) = 49.93 (TES) + 60.22 (PCS)
• 167.28 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF GREAT BRITAIN

Joshua Farris

• 59.79 (SP) = 33.36 (TES) + 26.43 (PCS)
• 127.95 (SP) = 70.29 (TES) + 58.66 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 187.74 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF GERMANY

Richard Dornbush

• 69.05 (SP) = 38.98 (TES) + 30.07 (PCS)
• 126.18 (FS) = 65.88 (TES) + 62.30 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)
• 195.23 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX OF CZECH REPUBLIC

Keegan Messing

• 61.53 (SP) = 30.60 (TES) + 30.93 (PCS)
• 116.37 (FS) = 55.31 (TES) + 62.06 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 177.90 (Total)

JUNIOR GRAND PRIX FINAL

Richard Dornbush

• 70.75 (SP) = 40.36 (TES) + 30.39 (PCS)
• 148.81 (FS) = 79.97 (TES) + 68.84 (PCS)
• 219.56 (Total)

Keegan Messing

• 68.52 (SP) = 38.02 (TES) + 30.50 (PCS)
• 106.90 (FS) = 48.82 (TES) + 60.08 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)
• 175.42 (Total)

Joshua Farris

• 65.24 (SP) = 36.03 (TES) + 29.21 (PCS)
• 108.73 (FS) = 51.31 (TES) + 58.42 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 173.97 (Total)