US Nationals Preview: Senior Ice Dance Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior ice dance teams competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some small disparities in scores for certain teams from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each team's top short dance score and top free dance score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each team matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would still rise to the top if each team would happen to match their season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIO
Davis/White: 68.64 (GPF) + 102.94 (GPF) = 171.58
Shibutani/Shibutani: 56.46 (SA) + 88.65 (SA) = 144.81
Chock/Zuerlein: 58.09 (TEB) + 84.86 (SC) = 142.95
Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt: 52.13 (SA) + 78.59 (SA) = 130.72
Hubbell/Hubbell: 44.47 (CC) + 76.48 (CC) = 120.95
Cannuscio/Lorello: 52.19 (TEB) + 64.61 (TEB) = 116.60
Tibbetts/Brubaker: 36.88 (SC) + 58.98 (SC) = 95.86

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Davis/White: 63.63 (SA) + 93.06 (SA) = 156.68

Shibutani/Shibutani: 53.68 (NHK) + 83.52 (NHK) = 136.93 

Chock/Zuerlein: 54.19 (SC) + 80.39 (TEB) = 134.58

Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt: 52.13 (SA) + 78.59 (SA) = 130.72

Hubbell/Hubbell: 44.47 (CC) + 76.48 (CC) = 120.95

Cannuscio/Lorello: 38.34 (CC) + 63.49 (CC) = 101.83

Tibbetts/Brubaker: 36.88 (SC) + 58.98 (SC) = 95.86

So both of these situation deliver the exact same results. However, there are some extenuating factors to consider:

• Chock/Zuerlein had several falls on the Grand Prix so their scores will go up if they skate clean
• The Hubbells withdrew from their second Grand Prix so they only had one shot at delivering a good score and their messy programs from Cup of China should be much improved at Nationals
• Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt & Tibbetts/Brubaker were each assigned only one Grand Prix so they only had one chance to show their programs to judges
• Cannuscio/Lorello made a 15 point jump from their first Grand Prix to their next and if they can improve by that much at Nationals, they will have a shot at making the top four