2011 Nebelhorn Trophy: Short Dance Results

Nelli Zhiganshina & Alexander Gazsi of Germany lead the short dance, but Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue of the USA are a very close second.

Pl.	Name	Nation	TSS =	TES +		PCS +	SS	TR	PE	CC	IT	Deduction -	StN.
1	Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI	GER	55.03	29.85		25.18	6.25	6.18	6.25	6.39	6.36	0.00	#2
2	Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE	USA	54.82	29.57		25.25	6.36	6.11	6.25	6.39	6.39	0.00	#4
3	Kharis RALPH / Asher HILL	CAN	52.03	28.00		24.03	6.25	5.96	5.93	5.89	6.00	0.00	#11
4	Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS	LTU	49.06	23.77		25.29	6.36	6.18	6.18	6.39	6.43	0.00	#10
5	Cathy REED / Chris REED	JPN	47.90	24.43		23.47	5.86	5.82	5.93	5.96	5.79	0.00	#3
6	Anastasia OLSON / Jordan COWAN	USA	45.84	25.36		21.48	5.43	5.18	5.36	5.46	5.39	1.00	#9
7	Sara HURTADO / Adria DIAZ	ESP	44.89	25.15		21.74	5.32	5.32	5.21	5.71	5.54	2.00	#8
8	Tarrah HARVEY / Keith GAGNON	CAN	43.84	24.35		20.49	5.39	5.00	5.32	5.18	4.82	1.00	#1
9	Louise WALDEN / Owen EDWARDS	GBR	43.83	24.57		19.26	5.00	4.64	4.75	4.96	4.71	0.00	#5
10	Kira GEIL / Tobias EISENBAUER	AUT	42.30	23.72		18.58	4.86	4.61	4.64	4.64	4.50	0.00	#6
11	Alisa AGAFONOVA / Alper UCAR	TUR	41.11	21.64		20.47	5.14	4.96	5.11	5.25	5.11	1.00	#14
12	Gabriela KUBOVA / Dmitri KISELEV	CZE	40.95	22.64		18.31	4.75	4.39	4.57	4.68	4.50	0.00	#7
13	Henna LINDHOLM / Ossi KANERVO	FIN	36.25	18.51		18.74	4.93	4.46	4.75	4.68	4.61	1.00	#12
14	Olesia KARMI / Max LINDHOLM	FIN	35.61	18.27		17.34	4.57	4.04	4.36	4.39	4.29	0.00	#13

2011 US Figure Skating Championships: Senior Free Dance

Alright everybody, the senior free dance is about to get underway. I'll be giving my commentary and thoughts on the elements and the performances as a whole. Feel free to leave me a comment!
** Denotes my choice in USFSA Fantasy Skating

1) Kristen Nardozzi & Robert Cuthbertson

   Music: Imagine/Revolution

• Great to hear the Beatles, a great American musical selection
• I don't love that they chose the GLEE version of Imagine versus the original John Lennon
• These 60s costumes a a tad tacky for me
• Kristen has a beautiful smile, but I hope she explores other ranges of emotion
• I'd like them to hold their lift positions a bit longer
• Oh Kristen tripped on her toe pick in the circular step sequence
• I love that we get to hear lyrics in Ice Dance
• That was a nice position in that one-arm rotational lift
• They are really far apart in their twizzles, but the mirroring work is very nice
• Using several versions of Imagine is a nice idea
• Nice solid ending to them
• Good performance, despite the fall
• FD Score: 29.75 (TES) + 25.71 (PCS) -1.00 (DED) = 54.46
• 38.53 (SD) + 54.46 (FD) = 92.99

2) Alison Carey & Ryan Van Nattan

   Music: James Bond

• Nice difficult spin positions, but they lose speed
• They start off out of synch, but get back together later in the twizzle sequence
• There is some snow flying, which is a sign of unclean turns
• They definitely can work on their fluidity and elegance
• They seem to be dancing on top of the ice, rather than into the ice
• They did a nice job, she really looks like a Bond Girl
• As their first senior season, this will be a good building year for them
• FD Score: 27.27 (TES) + 23.06 (PCS) -1.00 (DED) = 49.33
• 34.35 (SD) + 49.33 (FD) = 83.68

3) Alissandra Aronow & Zachary Donohue 

   Music: Medley

• This is another Zoueva/Shpilband team
• Zachary used to skate with Piper Gilles, the twin of Alexe
• They have been together less than a year
• So far, a very fluid, sensual opening
• They have some really fine lifts with interesting positions
• They really use their knees a lot
• Nice attack in those twizzles
• Nice layed out camel position by Alissandra in the dance spin
• Emily Samuelson just commented on their improved connection with each other on the ice
• Alissandra shows some nice flexibility in the split position going into the rotational lift
• That was a very strong free dance from them
• FD Score:  32.54 (TES) + 31.98 (PCS) = 64.52
• 40.84 (SD) + 64.52 (FD) = 105.36

4) Katharine Zeigler & Baxter Burbank

   Music: Ladies in Lavender

• This is another team in their first year at senior Nationals
• Slightly out of sync on their twizzles
• Nice lyrical quality and elegance in their program
• This won't medal, but it's a good beginning to their senior careers
• FD Score: 30.41 (TES) + 27.30 (PCS) = 57.71 
• 32.29 (SD) + 57.71 (FD) = 90.00

5) Katherine Pilgrim & Alexander Lorello

   Music: Sweet Emotion/Come Together/Walk This Way

• They are starting right off with their dance spin
• They are very close in height which gives them nice long lines on the ice
• Very far apart in their twizzles, they'll want to get closer together in those in the future
• He caught an edge and dropped her in a split position from a rotational lift
• She has to be hurting right now
• A fall like that will definitely hurt your performance quality
• They seem like they are running out of steam here after that fall
• Nice hydroblade move, I wish they would've hung onto the edge a little longer and rode a longer curve
• Poor Katherine also had a serious collision during the warm up for the short dance and now this
• FD Score: 22.92 (TES) + 25.68 (PCS) -1.00 (DED) = 47.60
• 32.79 (SD) + 47.60 (FD) = 80.39

6) Ginna Hoptman & Pavel Filchenkov **

   Music:

• 
  
• FD Score: (TES) +  (PCS) = 69.16
• 48.37 (SD) + 69.16 (FD) = 117.53

7) Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello

   Music: West Side Story

• 
  
• FD Score: (TES) +  (PCS) = 82.12
• 54.43 (SD) + 82.12 (FD) = 136.55

8) Rachel Tibbets & Colin Brubaker

   Music:

• 
  
• FD Score: (TES) +  (PCS) = 76.39
• 41.86 (SD) + 76.39 (FD) = 118.25

9) Shannon Wingle & Timothy McKernan

   Music:

• 
  
• FD Score: (TES) +  (PCS) = 75.13
• 55.07 (SD) + 75.13 (FD) = 130.20

10) Meredith Zuber & Kyle Herring

     Music:

• 
  
• FD Score: (TES) +  (PCS) = 73.64
• 44.42 (SD) + 73.64 (FD) = 118.06 

11) Madison Chock & Greg Zuerlein

     Music: Cabaret

• I've been saying all season that they look like a young Liza Minnelli & Joel Grey, thats a compliment
• Greg has great facial expression here to keep up with Madison
• Nice twizzle series, very solid
• They just banged it out
• Awesome speed in teh circular step sequence, good tight turns here
• Greg is killing me with this performance, Joel Grey would be so proud
• I love this spin they do at the beginning of The Money Song
• Loving everything about them
• They've been the team I've been pulling for all season
• I love that upside down lift they do in The Money Song
• Those tight turns at the end of the Money Song are so tight, they had falls there at Grand Prix Paris but so clean here
• oooo time for Liza, work the Liza Madison!
• That final rotational lift was awesome!
• FD Score: 48.07 (TES) + 44.81 (PCS) = 92.88
• 61.74 (SD) + 92.88 (FD) = 154.62

12) Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani

     Music: Smile/Let's Face The Music And Dance

• So precious, I just love it
• This is so elegant, maturity beyond their years
• They look like a 25-year old seasoned veteran team out there
• Every moment is just so special, there is so much detail
• They are so gentle and delicate in those holds
• That combination lift is fantastic and he sets her down so gently 
• I love the transition here into the second piece
• They are twizzle masters, they are so good the do three sets 
• He lifts her like nobody's business
• They just are so heartwarming, they have something so very special about them
• They have that X-factor performance quality that you just can't teach
• They could be the next Olympic champions, they are that good at such a young age
• FD Score: 52.34 (TES) + 50.37 (PCS) = 102.71
• 70.47 (SD) + 102.71 (FD) = 173.18

13) Madison Hubbell & Keiffer Hubbell

     Music: Medley by Yellow & Art of Noise

• Their programs always have a bit too much sensuality for me for a brother/sister team
• They have some unison issues on their twizzles, they are pushing it too much
• They do have nice long lines because they are both so tall
• They hit some innovative lift positions
• Nice use of the hydroblade technique there
• I love the low positions they get to in those balance moves, that's a way that they use their height similarity to their advantage
• They look a little wild in my opinion, not as crisp and clean as I would like
• FD Score: 41.86 (TES) + 41.93 (PCS) = 83.79
• 57.91 (SD) + 83.79 (FD) = 141.70

14) Lynn Kriengkrairut & Logan Giulietti-Schmitt **

     Music: 

• They are on my fantasy team so I'm rooting for them
• They have nice speed, but I want them to calm down a bit and not get so wild
• Nice lift with Logan on one foot
• Arms were a little out of unison on the twizzles
• She is flying around his head really quickly in some of those lifts
• I'm not sure who their coaches are, but they have some pretty innovative lifts
• They don't have the speed and difficulty of the Zoueva/Shpilband teams in their footwork sequences
• Nice dance spin sequence, she uses her free arm quite well as well
• Oh wow Lynn just fell and pulled Logan down on top her
• That is really going to hurt their score, which is unfortunate because they had been doing so well
• FD Score: 40.00 (TES) + 42.83 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)  = 79.83
• 58.59 (SD) + 79.83 (FD) = 138.42

15) Meryl Davis & Charlie White **

     Music: Tango Medley

• I have a feeling this is just a preview of the 2011 World Champions
• Another new costume for Meryl, I love the skirt on this one
• They have such amazing speed
• I love that lift where Meryl rests on the back of Charlie's leg
• They have such intricate and complicated holds
• They are soo good at the small details like head positions and hand movements
• Phenomenal twizzles
• This is an expertly choreographed program that does not waste a single moment of the music
• Every time they get through that moment where they fell at Skate America, I breath a little easier
• Meryl has to have such amazing abdominal strength to hold some of those lift positions
• They have to be so exhausted after this program
• I love how distinctive those three poses are at the end of the program
• FD Score: 52.16 (TES) + 57.28 (PCS) = 109.44
• 76.04 (SD) + 109.44 (FD) = 185.48

Final Standings:

2011 US Figure Skating Championships: Senior Ice Dance Predictions and Fantasy Picks

My Predictions:

1) Meryl Davis & Charlie White

2) Madison Chock & Greg Zuerlein

3) Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani

4) Madison Hubbell & Keiffer Hubbell

5) Lynn Kriengkrairui & Logan Giulietti-Schmitt

6) Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello

My Fantasy Picks:                                        SkateGate's Fantasy Pick:

A) Davis/White                                              A) Davis/White

B) Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt                 B) Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt

C) Hoptman/Filchenkov                                C) Hoptman/Filchenkov

If there is such a thing as a sure thing in figure skating these days, it is Meryl Davis and Charlie White. With Virtue and Moir out of the Grand Prix this season, they had not competition internationally and they should not be challenged at home this year at Nationals either. While the US has a strong field in the senior Ice Dance event, Davis and White would literally have to skip several elements in their programs to find themselves below the top spot of the podium. They have top scores of 68.64 in the short dance, 102.94 in the free dance, and an overall combined score of  171.58. These scores easily won them the Grand Prix Final gold for the second year in a row. While they do not have to worry about competition at Nationals, they can use the event as a chance to improve their technical levels and program components going into the World Championships where they are favored to win gold. 

Nipping at the heels of Davis and White are their training partners Madison Chock and Greg Zuerlein and Maia and Alex Shibutani. Both of these teams are relatively young and train under Marina Zoueva and Igor Shpilband. Chock and Zuerlein are the 2009 Jr. National and World Champions and last year they debuted on the senior level with an impressive 5th place finish at Nationals. With a senior season under their belts, they looked poised to land in the number two spot in the US, though Maia and Alex Shibutani, the 2010 Jr. National Champions making their senior debut actually have put up higher scores on the Grand Prix.

Though the Shibutanis have put up slightly higher scores, particularly in the free dance, the teams are in a relative dead heat for the silver medal and I think that will be one of the most interesting battles of the event. I am torn because I love both teams so much and they bring very different things to the table. I don't think Chock and Zuerlein's short dance to Edith Piaf's waltzes suits them as well as it could. However, I love their free dance to Cabaret and it is just so quirky. They perform it so well and remind me of a young Joel Grey and Liza Minnelli. They definitely commit to the characters in a mature, yet whimsical way and because they are a Zoueva/Shpilband team, the technical content is obviously there. Their performances won them two bronze medals at their Grand Prix events this season.

I think the Shibutanis have a fantastic short dance and it is just so fluid and gorgeous. Part of that is that The Carousel Waltz is one of my favorite pieces of music on the planet, but they just perform it so incredibly well. They burst onto the senior Grand Prix circuit this year like seasoned professionals, winning two bronze medals in highly contested fields at both of their events. I think they were US bronze medal favorites going into this season, but after the scores they put up on the Grand Prix, they may just be favorites for silver in the minds of most.

While I and many other predict that these three Zoueva and Shpilband teams will sweep the podium, there are several other top teams just waiting to throw a wrench into that plan. Madison and Keiffer Hubbell had a disastrous short dance at Cup of China and though they came back with a stronger free, they still finished off of the podium. They had a much stronger start at Cup of Russia, but they withdrew due to illness, so they will have something to prove at nationals. If all goes according to plan, the Hubbells will make up the final warm up group with the three Zoueva/Shpilband teams, though I don't think they are at the same level as my perceived top three. Lynn Kriengkrairut and Logan Giulietti-Schmitt made a very strong showing at their lone Grand Prix event and actually scored higher than the Hubbells by about 10 points so we'll see if that was a precursor of things to come. Also, expect big things out of Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello. Their overall score improved by about 15 points from their first Grand Prix to their second and if they can keep going, they'll be in the same score range as the the Hubbells and Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt. Regardless of what happens, I am most looking forward to this event next weekend!

US Nationals Preview: Senior Ice Dance Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior ice dance teams competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some small disparities in scores for certain teams from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each team's top short dance score and top free dance score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each team matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would still rise to the top if each team would happen to match their season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIO
Davis/White: 68.64 (GPF) + 102.94 (GPF) = 171.58
Shibutani/Shibutani: 56.46 (SA) + 88.65 (SA) = 144.81
Chock/Zuerlein: 58.09 (TEB) + 84.86 (SC) = 142.95
Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt: 52.13 (SA) + 78.59 (SA) = 130.72
Hubbell/Hubbell: 44.47 (CC) + 76.48 (CC) = 120.95
Cannuscio/Lorello: 52.19 (TEB) + 64.61 (TEB) = 116.60
Tibbetts/Brubaker: 36.88 (SC) + 58.98 (SC) = 95.86

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Davis/White: 63.63 (SA) + 93.06 (SA) = 156.68

Shibutani/Shibutani: 53.68 (NHK) + 83.52 (NHK) = 136.93 

Chock/Zuerlein: 54.19 (SC) + 80.39 (TEB) = 134.58

Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt: 52.13 (SA) + 78.59 (SA) = 130.72

Hubbell/Hubbell: 44.47 (CC) + 76.48 (CC) = 120.95

Cannuscio/Lorello: 38.34 (CC) + 63.49 (CC) = 101.83

Tibbetts/Brubaker: 36.88 (SC) + 58.98 (SC) = 95.86

So both of these situation deliver the exact same results. However, there are some extenuating factors to consider:

• Chock/Zuerlein had several falls on the Grand Prix so their scores will go up if they skate clean
• The Hubbells withdrew from their second Grand Prix so they only had one shot at delivering a good score and their messy programs from Cup of China should be much improved at Nationals
• Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt & Tibbetts/Brubaker were each assigned only one Grand Prix so they only had one chance to show their programs to judges
• Cannuscio/Lorello made a 15 point jump from their first Grand Prix to their next and if they can improve by that much at Nationals, they will have a shot at making the top four

US Nationals Preview: Senior Ice Dance Competition

When projecting the results for Nationals, it is important to look at the skaters' results in the events leading up to Nationals. The teams included in this post are the competitors that have the best chance of medaling at Nationals. Below are the scores from the 2010 Senior Grand Prix Series. I will be making my predictions and fantasy choices based on these scores and some other extenuating factors in a post to come next week. But for now, here are the top scores among US ice dance teams for the short program, free skate, and overall totals. 

Top Short Dance Scores

68.64 Davis/White (Grand Prix Final)
66.97 Davis/White (NHK Trophy)
63.62 Davis/White (Skate America)
58.09 Chock/Zuerlein (Trophee  Eric Bompard)
56.46 Shibutani/Shibutani (Skate America)

54.19 Chock/Zuerlein (Skate Canada)

53.68 Shibutani/Shibutani (NHK Trophy)
52.19 Cannuscio/Lorello (Trophee Eric Bompard)
52.13 Kriengkrairuit/Giulietti-Schmitt (Skate America)

44.47 Hubbell/Hubbell (Cup of China)

38.34 Cannuscio/Lorello (Cup of China)

36.88 Tibbetts/Brubaker (Skate Canada)

Top Free Dance Scores

102.94 Davis/White (Grand Prix Final)
98.24 Davis/White (NHK Trophy)
93.06 Davis/White (Skate America)
88.65 Shibutani/Shibutani (Skate America)

84.86 Chock/Zuerlein (Skate Canada)

83.52 Shibutani/Shibutani (NHK Trophy)
80.39 Chock/Zuerlein (Trophee Eric Bompard)
78.59 Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt (Skate America)

76.48 Hubbell/Hubbell (Cup of China)
64.41 Cannuscio/Lorello (Trophee Eric Bompard)

63.49 Cannuscio/Lorello (Cup of China)

58.98 Tibbetts/Brubaker (Skate Canada)

Top Total Scores

171.58 Davis/White (Grand Prix Final)
165.21 Davis/White (NHK Trophy)
156.68 Davis/White (Skate America)
144.81 Shibutani/Shibutani (Skate America)

139.05 Chock/Zuerlein (Skate Canada)
138.40 Chock/Zuerlein (Trophee Eric Bompard)

136.93 Shibutani/Shibutani (NHK Trophy)
130.72 Kriengkrairuit/Giulietti-Schmitt (Skate America)

120.95 Hubbell/Hubbell (Cup of China)
116.60 Cannuscio/Lorello (Trophee Eric Bompard)

101.83 Cannuscio/Lorello (Cup of China)

95.86 Tibbetts/Brubaker (Skate Canada)

NHK TROPHY

Davis/White

• 66.97 (SD) = 32.28 (TES) + 34.69 (PCS)
• 98.24 (FD) = 46.22 (TES) + 52.02 (PCS)
• 165.21 (Total)

Shibutani/Shibutani

• 53.68 (SD) = 28.57 (TES) + 26.11 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 83.25 (FD) = 42.67 (TES) + 40.58 (PCS) 
• 136.93 (Total)

SKATE CANADA

Chock/Zuerlein

• 54.19 (SD) = 28.21 (TES) + 25.98 (PCS)
• 84.86 (FD) = 44.27 (TES) + 40.59 (PCS)
• 139.05 (Total)

Tibbetts/Brubaker

• 36.88 (SD) = 18.92 (TES) + 18.96 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 58.98 (FD) = 33.10 (TES) + 27.88 (PCS) -2.00 (DED) 
• 95.86 (Total)

CUP OF CHINA

Hubbell/Hubbell

• 44.47 (SD) = 23.39 (TES) + 24.18 (PCS) -3.00 (DED)
• 76.48 (FD) = 38.64 (TES) + 37.84 (PCS)
• 120.95 (Total)

Cannuscio/Lorello

• 38.34 (SD) = 19.05 (TES) + 19.29 (PCS)
• 63.49 (FD) = 34.43 (TES) + 29.06 (PCS)
• 101.83 (Total)

SKATE AMERICA

Davis/White

• 63.62 (SD) = 30.00 (TES) + 33.62 (PCS)
• 93.06 (FD) = 45.16 (TES) + 50.90 (PCS) -3.00 (DED)
• 156.68 (Total)

Shibutani/Shibutani

• 56.46 (SP) = 30.08 (TES) + 26.38 (PCS)
• 88.65 (FD) = 46.79 (TES) + 41.56 (PCS)
• 144.81 (Total)

Kriengkrairut/Giuliette-Schmitt

• 52.13 (SD) = 29.83 (TES) + 22.30 (PCS)
• 78.59 (FD) = 42.63 (TES) + 35.96 (PCS)
• 130.72 (Total)

TROPHEE ERIC BOMPARD


Chock/Zuerlein

• 58.09 (SD) = 31.41 (TES) + 26.68 (PCS)
• 80.39 (FD) = 41.26 (TES) + 40.13 (PCS) -1.00 (DED) 
• 138.40 (Total)

Cannuscio/Lorello

• 52.19 (SD) = 31.17 (TES) + 21.02 (PCS)
• 64.41 (FD) = 32.92 (TES) + 32.49 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 116.60 (Total)

GRAND PRIX FINAL

Davis/White

• 68.64 (SD) = 34.42 (TES) + 34.22 (PCS)
• 102.94 (FD) = 50.15 (TES) + 52.79 (PCS)
• 171.58 (Total)