US Nationals Preview: Senior Pairs Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior pairs competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some large disparities in scores for certain teams from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each skaters top short program score and top free skate score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each team matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would still rise to the top if each pair would happen to match their season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIO
Yankowskas/Coughlin: 57.86 (CC) + 108.86 (CC) = 166.72
Denney/Barrett: 58.49 (SA) + 107.93 (SA) = 166.42
Evora/Ladwig: 52.58 (CR) + 110.27 (CR) = 162.85
Castelli/Shnapir: 56.34 (SC) + 106.09 (SA) = 162.43
Marley/Brubaker: 56.51 (NQC) + 99.96 (NQC) = 156.47
Simpson/Miller: 50.28 (CR) + 95.50 (CR) = 145.78
Zhang/Toth: 48.13 (SA) + 86.55 (TEB) + 134.58

WORST CASE SCENARIO
Marley/Brubaker: 56.51 (NQC) + 99.96 (NQC) = 156.47
Yankowskas/Coughlin: 54.19 (NHK) + 100.69 (NHK) = 154.88
Denney/Barrett: 55.03 (NHK) + 97.335 (NHK) = 152.38
Evora/Ladwig: 51.46 (CC) + 100.20 (CC) + 151.66
Castelli/Shnapir: 47.24 (SA) + 103.51 (SC) = 150.75
Simpson/Miller: 46.39 (SC) + 87.66 (SC) = 134.05 
Zhang/Toth: 40.93 (TEB) + 78.57 (SA) = 119.50


Since there is some variation in placements, here are some things to consider:

• Yankowskas/Coughlin and Evora/Ladwig are the only US pair teams to medal on the senior Grand Prix so they have great momentum going in
• Denney/Barrett have put up some of the highest scores this season, but it is also incredibly hard to defend a national championship, especially in pairs
• Castelli/Shnapir perhaps have more potential than any other team and if they can hit all of their elements in both programs, which they have yet to do this season, they will make the podium
• Marley/Brubaker are definitely the dark horses and if they can improve their free skate scores, they may just surprise everyone and make the podium

US Nationals Preview: Senior Pairs Competition

When projecting the results for Nationals, it is important to look at the skaters' results in the events leading up to Nationals. The pairs included in this post are the competitors that have the best chance of medaling at Nationals. Below are the scores from the 2010 Senior Grand Prix Series, as well as the 2011 Nesquik Cup to include Mary Beth Marley and Rockne Brubaker. I will be making my predictions and fantasy choices based on these scores and some other extenuating factors in a post to come next week. But for now, here are the top scores among US pair teams for the short program, free skate, and overall totals. 

Top Short Program Scores
58.49 Denney/Barrett (Skate America)
57.86 Yankowskas/Coughlin (Cup of China)
56.51 Marley/Brubaker (Nesquik Cup)
56.34 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate Canada)
55.03 Denney/Barrett (NHK Trophy)
54.19 Yankowskas/Coughlin (NHK Trophy)
52.58 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of Russia)
51.46 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of China)
50.28 Simpson/Miller (Cup of Russia)
48.13 Zhang/Toth (Skate America)
47.24 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate America)
46.39 Simpson/Miller (Skate Canada)
40.93 Zhang/Toth (Trophee Eric Bompard)

Top Free Skate Scores
110.27 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of Russia)
108.86 Yankowskas/Coughlin (Cup of China)
107.93 Denney/Barrett (Skate America)
106.09 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate America)
103.51 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate Canada)
100.69 Yankowskas/Coughlin (NHK Trophy)
100.20 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of China)
99.96 Marley/Brubaker (Nesquik Cup)
97.35 Denney/Barrett (NHK Trophy)
95.50 Simpson/Miller (Cup of Russia)
87.66 Simpson/Miller (Skate Canada)
86.55 Zhang/Toth (Trophee Eric Bompard)
78.57 Zhang/Toth (Skate America)

Top Total Scores
166.72 Yankowskas/Coughlin (Cup of China)
166.42 Denney/Barrett (Skate America)
162.85 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of Russia)
159.85 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate Canada)
156.47 Marley/Brubaker (Nesquik Cup)
154.88 Yankowskas/Coughlin (NHK Trophy)
153.33 Castelli/Shnapir (Skate America)
152.38 Denney/Barrett (NHK Trophy)
151.66 Evora/Ladwig (Cup of China)
145.78 Simpson/Miller (Cup of Russia)
134.05 Simpson/Miller (Skate Canada)
127.48 Zhang/Toth (Trophee Eric Bompard)
126.70 Zhang/Toth (Skate America)

NHK TROPHY

Yankowskas/Coughlin

• 54.19 (SP) = 29.93 (TES) + 24.26 (PCS)
• 100.69 (FS) = 52.66 (TES) + 49.03 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 154.88 (Total)

Denney/Barrett

• 55.03 (SP) = 30.22 (TES) + 24.81 (PCS)
• 97.35 (FS) = 47.42 (TES) + 49.93 (PCS)
• 152.38 (Total)

SKATE CANADA

Castelli/Shnapir

• 56.34 (SP) = 32.96 (TES) + 23.38 (PCS)
• 103.51 (FS) = 53.82 (TES) + 50.69 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 159.85 (Total)

Simpson/Miller

• 46.39 (SP) = 23.98 (TES) + 22.41 (PCS)
• 87.66 (FS) = 45.49 (TES) + 43.17 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 134.05 (Total)

CUP OF CHINA

Yankowskas/Coughlin

• 57.86 (SP) = 31.20 (TES) + 26.66 (PCS)
• 108.86 (FS) = 55.70 (TES) + 54.16 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 166.72 (Total)

Evora Ladwig

• 51.46 (SP) = 28.69 (TES) + 22.77 (PCS)
• 100.20 (FS) = 51.24 (TES) + 48.96 (PCS)
• 151.66 (Total)

SKATE AMERICA

Denney/Barrett

• 58.49 (SP) = 32.46 (TES) + 26.03 (PCS)
• 107.93 (FS) = 55.17 (TES) + 53.76 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 166.42 (Total)

Castelli/Shnapir

• 47.24 (SP) = 26.50 (TES) + 22.74 (PCS) -2.00 (DED)
• 106.09 (FS) = 57.23 (TES) + 48.86 (PCS) 
• 153.33 (Total)

Zhang/Toth

• 48.13 (SP) = 26.82 (TES) + 21.31 (PCS)
• 78.57 (FS) = 40.43 (TES) + 39.14 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 126.70 (Total)

CUP OF RUSSIA

Evora/Ladwig

• 52.58 (SP) = 27.38 (TES) + 27.38 (PCS)
• 110.27 (FS) = 57.62 (TES) + 53.65 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 162.85 (Total)

Simpson/Miller

• 50.28 (SP) = 26.91 (TES) + 23.27 (PCS)
• 95.50 (FS) = 47.10 (TES) + 49.40 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 145.78 (Total)

TROPHEE ERIC BOMPARD

Zhang/Toth

• 40.93 (SP) = 20.65 (TES) + 20.28 (PCS)
• 86.55 (FS) = 46.22 (TES) + 41.33 (PCS) -1.00 (DED)
• 127.48 (Total)