BackStage Barbie: JGPF

Showing posts with label JGPF. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Junior Grand Prix Final Predictions

I've returned to blogging after two weeks off and if feels like a lifetime! Anyway, we're approaching one of the biggest weekends of the year in figure skating, the Grand Prix Final. While the seniors are the headliners, there were some truly outstanding juniors on the circuit this season, many even outscored top seniors. The Gold medalists in the junior events are fairly easy to predict, but the other medals are up for grabs. Here are my predictions for each event.

Junior Pairs: Short Program (Dec 8th 5:00 p.m.) Free Skate (Dec 9th 11:25 a.m.)
1) Sui/Han (CHN) Highest JGP Score 167.14
2) Yu/Jin (CHN) Highest JGP Score 154.37
3) Bobak/Beharry (CAN) Highest JGP Score 147.72
4) Petaikina/Kurduykov (RUS) Highest JGP Score 144.47
5) Simpson/Blackmer (USA) Highest JGP Score 141.42
6) Tudvaseva/Lisiev (RUS) Highest JGP Score 129.35

Junior Ladies: Short Program (Dec 8th 6:15 p.m.) Free Skate (Dec 9th 6:30 p.m.)
1) Julia Lipnitskaia (RUS) Highest JGP Score 183.05
2) Risa Shoji (JPN) Highest JGP Score 157.83
3) Polina Shlepen (RUS) Highest JGP Score 157.61
4) Vanessa Lam (USA) Highest JGP Score 156.58
5) Zijun Li (CHN) Highest JGP Score 156.40
6) Polina Korobeynikova (RUS) Highest JGP Score 149.87

Junior Ice Dance: Short Dance (Dec 8th 7:20 p.m.) Free Dance (Dec 10th 2:20 p.m.)
1) Sinitsina/Zhiganshin (RUS) Highest JGP Score 151.10
2) Stepanova/Bukin (RUS) Highest JGP Score 149.98
3) Yanovskaia/Mozgov (RUS) Highest JGP Score 142.72
4) Aldridge/Eaton (USA) Highest JGP Score 136.86
5) Nosulia/Kholoniuk (UKR) Highest JGP Score 128.34
6) Galyeta/Shumski (UKR) Highest JGP Score 122.35

Junior Men: Short Program (Dec 8th 8:35 p.m.) Free Skate (Dec 10th 7:00 p.m.)
1) Han Yan (CHN) Highest JGP Score 219.37
2) Joshua Farris (USA) Highest JGP Score 207.67
3) Jason Brown (USA) Highest JGP Score 197.23
4) Keiji Tanaka (JPN) Highest JGP Score 192.36
5) Maxim Kovtun (RUS) Highest JGP Score 186.67
6) Ryuju Hino (JPN) Highest JGP Score 182.71

Monday, October 10, 2011

2011 Junior Grand Prix of Estonia: Preview

We've arrived at the final Junior Grand Prix event of the season, Estonia, where several skaters and teams will make their final attempt at qualifying for the Final. The competition schedule (Eastern Standard) is as follows:

Thursday October 13th Friday October 14th Saturday October 15th
3:00 a.m. Men's Short 3:00 a.m. Short Dance 3:00 a.m. Ladies Free
7:30 a.m. Pairs Short 7:00 a.m. Pairs Free 8:15 a.m. Free Dance
11:15 a.m. Ladies Short 11:00 a.m. Men's Free

Men
We'll see two of this season's Gold medalists at this event, Joshua Farris (USA) and Maxim Kovtun (Russia). If both perform to the best of their abilities, Farris should come out on top. Both are locks for the JGP Final if they finish 4th or higher. Ryuichi Kihara (Japan) is the likely bronze medalists, but he needs to win the Gold in order to qualify for the Final. If he wins silver, he'll force a tie-breaker bith countryman Keiji Tanaka based on highest total points between both events. Shotaro Omori (USA) and Shoma Uno (Japan) both have an outside chance of making the final if they could pull off a win and also break a tie with the highest total points.

Podium Predictions:
Gold: Joshua Farris (USA)
Silver: Maxim Kovtun (RUS)
Bronze: Ryuichi Kihara (JPN)

My JGP Final Predictions:
1) Yan (CHN)
2) Farris (USA)
3) Hino (JPN)
4) Brown (USA)
5) Kovtun (RUS)
6) Ryuichi Kihara (JPN)

Ladies
This event will be a major battleground for Final hopefuls as a lot can happen. Samantha Cesario (USA), Risa Shoji (JPN), and Anna Shershak (RUS) are all vying for two unclaimed spots in the ladies Final. Shoji and Sherhak both have 13 points for their Silver medals and Cesario has 11 for her bronze. However, Cesario's point total from JGP Poland (153.84) beats both of the Silver medalists, Shershak (150.21) in Italy and Shoji (147.29) in Australia. In most scenarios, the Gold & Silver medalists here will get the 2 spots in the Final, unless of course Cessario wins Silver giving her (11)+(13)=26 and either Shershak or Shoji wins bronze giving them (13)+(11)=26. In that case the skater with the highest combined points from both evetns goes to the final. In any circumstance, assuming one of these ladies wins Gold, she automatically goes to the final.

Podium Predictions:
Gold: Samantha Cessario (USA)
Silver: Anna Shershak (RUS)
Bronze: Risa Shoji (JPN)

My JGP Final Predictions:
1) Julia Lipnitskaia (RUS)
2) Polina Shelepen (RUS)
3) Vanessa Lam (USA)
4) Samantha Cessario (USA)
5) Zijun Li (CHN)
6) Anna Shershak (RUS)

Pairs
Only two pairs teams, Sui/Han (China) & Yu/Jin (CHN) have sealed their spots in the final, while the other 4 are still up for grabs. JGP Poland Gold medalists Simpson/Blackmer (USA) seem poised to repeat this week in Estonia, though they only need a top 4 finish to make the Final. JGP Poland Silver medalists Bobak/Beharry (CAN) also look Final-worthy and a medal of any color this week will get them there. Calalang/Sidhu (USA) can secure a spot if they win a medal of any color at this event while Aaron/Settlage (USA) have to win Gold to guarantee a berth in the Final. Fedorova/Moroshkin (RUS) can earn their spot by winning a Silver or higher this week, though bronze could force a tie-breaker. The teams competing this week control the fate of some of the "bubble" teams that have already done their two events, including two Russian pairs Petaikina/Kurduykov & Tudvaseva/Lisiev.

Podium Predictions:
Gold: Simpson/Blackmer (USA)
Silver: Fedorova/Moroshkin (RUS)
Bronze: Bobak/Beharry (CAN)

My JGP Final Predictions:
1) Sui/Han (CHN) *if they qualify for the Senior GPF the 1st alternate will take this spot
2) Simpson/Blackmer (USA)
3) Yu/Jin (CHN)
4) Bobak/Beharry (CAN)
5) Fedorova/Moroshkin (RUS)
6) Petaikina/Kurduykov (RUS)

Ice Dance
Four spots in the Final are already locked up, but this week's competitors have the chance to either secure the final two spots, or give one to one of the bubble teams that has already competed. Kosigina/Moroshkin (RUS), Yanovskaia/Mozgov (USA), Bent/Mackeen (CAN) all control their own destiny this week in that if they win Gold, they earn their berth in the Final. For whomever does not win, a lot of things can happen. Since Kosigina/Moroshkin have 13 points, and the others have only 11, they can earn a spot with a Silver as well and a Bronze puts them in a tie-breaker. But if they win, the Silver medal winning team will be tied with Aldridge/Eaton (USA) based on total points. All 3 teams were within 2 points of each other at their first event with the edge going to Yanovskaia/Mozgov with a total event score of 121.72 at JGP Poland.

Podium predictions:
Gold: Kosigina/Moroshkin (RUS)
Silver: Yanovskaia/Mozgov (RUS)
Bronze: Bent/Mackeen (CAN)

My JGP Final Predictions:
1) Sinistina/Zhiganshin (RUS)
2) Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
3) Kosigina/Moroshkin (RUS)
4) Nosulia/Kholoniuk (UKR)
5) Galyeta/Shumski (UKR)
6) Aldridge/Eaton (USA)

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

2011 Junior Grand Prix of Italy: Preview

The 6th of 7 Junior Grand Prix events begins official competition tomorrow (Thursday October 6th) in Milan, Italy. The official event schedule in Eastern Standard Time is below:

Thursday Oct 6th              Friday Oct 7th                    Saturday Oct 8th
7:50 a.m. Men's Short       9:15 a.m. Short Dance         5:50 a.m. Free Dance
12:00 p.m. Ladies Short    12:15 p.m. Men's Free          8:55 a.m. Ladies Free

As with the first 5 JGP events, we can expect live scoring on the ISU website and almost immediate videos posted on the ISUJGP2011 youtube channel. There will be no pairs event in Italy, but there should be more than enough to keep us interested in the Ladies, Men's, and Ice Dance events, including some key battles for spots in the Junior Grand Prix Final.

In the Men's fields, Jason Brown & Han Yan each have a gold from their first JGP and Artur Dmitriev has a silver. All 3 can make the final but they each need a medal in order to keep Japan's Keiji Tanaka out of the final.

The Ladies event will feature a showdown between two gold medalists, Julia Liptnitskaia and Courtney Hicks. Lipnitskaia won her gold with a higher score than Hicks so she is the favorite, but there is room for both in the final if they medal here. Japan's Satoko Miyahara also has a shot at making the final, but she'll need to win gold here which is quite a tall order in this field.

Stepanova & Bukin have the edge in ice dance, having won gold at JGP Romania. Nipping at their heels will be JGP Australia silver medalists Bonacorsi & Mager and JGP Australia bronze medalists Zenkova & Sinitsin. The JGP final situation in ice dance is quite messy and though there is a chance all 3 of these teams can make it, tie-breakers based on total points may come into play.

Warm-Up Group 1

Adil ZHARBOLOV