2011 World Figure Skating Championships: My Predictions

I hope everyone is getting excited for the 2011 World Figure Skating Championships in Moscow, I know I am! The events kick off tomorrow with the qualifying rounds. Once we hit the short programs, on Wednesday, I'll be either live-blogging or tweeting each of the events. My USFSA Fantasy Picks as well as my predictions for the top five in each event are as follows:

Fantasy Pairs:                                         Fantasy Men:
A) Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER)             A) Patrick Chan (CAN)
B) Yankowskas/Coughlin (USA)            B) Artur Gachinski (RUS)
C) Kadlecova/Bidar (CZE)                     C) Jorik Hendrickx (BEL)

Fantasy Dance:                                       Fantasy Ladies:
A) Virtue/Moir (CAN)                               A) Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
B) Shibutani/Shibutani (USA)                 B) Ksenia Makarova (RUS)
C) Heekin-Canedy/Shakalov (UKR)       C) Juulia Turkkila (FIN)

Pairs Predictions:                                   Mens Predictions:
1) Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER)             1) Patrick Chan (CAN)
2) Kavaguti/Smirnov (RUS)                   2) Daisuke Takahashi (JPN)
3) Volosozhar/Trankov (RUS)                3) Takahiko Kozuka (JPN)
4) Pang/Tong (CHN)                              4) Nobunari Oda (JPN)
5) Bazarova/Larionov (RUS)                  5) Brian Joubert (FRA)

Dance Predictions:                                Ladies Predictions:
1) Virtue/Moir (CAN)                             1) Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
2) Davis/White (USA)                            2) Miki Ando (JPN)
3) Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA)                    3) Mao Asada (JPN)
4) Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS)                   4) Alissa Czisny (USA)
5) Shibutani/Shibutani (USA)                5) Rachael Flatt (USA)

And in case you needed a reminder, below is the event schedule (EST):

Wednesday, April 27
5:30 a.m.: Men's short program
10:45 a.m.: Opening ceremonies
11:30 a.m.: Pairs short program

Thursday, April 28
5:00 a.m.: Men's free skate
10:00 a.m.: Pairs free skate

Friday, April 29
5:30 a.m.: Ladies short program
10:30 a.m.: Short dance

Saturday, April 30
5:30 a.m.: Ladies free skate
10:30 a.m.: Free dance

2011 World Figure Skating Championships: Ladies Preview

The big story next week in Moscow on the ladies front will be the competitive return of World and Olympic champion Yu-Na Kim. Thickening the plot, her biggest rival, Mao Asada, struggled for the majority of this season but returned to her top form back in February at Four Continents. Then there is Miki Ando who dominated most of the season, but will she be able to remain in tip top shape with the long break in the season. And Americans Rachael Flatt and Alissa Czisny are certainly not to be counted out either.

The Top Contenders
The Queen, Yu-Na Kim, will take her first strokes across competitive ice this season at Worlds. That would be a tall order for anyone other than Yu-Na, who has recently switched coaches. If she says she is ready to compete for the top spot then I fully believe she is. I'm excited to see her new programs, particularly her Giselle short program which will be interesting because it is a ballet and Yu-Na is not known for her turnout or pointed toes. Her free skate is a love letter to Korea and I expect a very emotional performance. There has been much speculation as to her jump layout but none of that means anything to me. In my opinion, if she lands her jumps and goes clean in both programs, she'll win...she is just that good.

 One of the few women in the world who has beaten Yu-Na Kim is Mao Asada, the 2008 and 2010 World Champion. She had a disastrous Grand Prix after re-learning her jumping technique, a strategy which ultimately proved effective as she overcame her earlier struggles to win a silver at Four Continents in February. Only time will tell if revamping her jump technique will help her in the long run, but to my eye her jumps do look fully rotated now and that will help her hold onto the precious technical element points that she needs to overtake Yu-Na Kim. One great thing that Mao has going for her is that her teammates are some of the best in the world. Because the Japanese field is so deep, some of their greatest challenges of the season come at Nationals and even making the World team is a great triumph for her, especially with the way her season started.

Many would argue that Miki Ando is the favorite for the World title because she won both of her Grand Prix events, Japanese Nationals, and Four Continents. Her only off competition was the Grand Prix Final, due in part to a poor short program which she was debuting at that event. I too would have picked Miki to win back when Worlds were in Japan in March, but I have no way of predicting how the downtime has effected her. I'm not going to say that the extra month has necessarily hurt her, but I do believe that it will prove advantageous for her two biggest competitors, Kim and Asada. Regardless of the color, I do not see Miki Ando leaving Moscow without a medal of some color around her neck unless she makes some major mistakes.

Alissa Czisny definitely gets the award for comeback kid this season, returning from several disappointing seasons to win gold medals at Skate Canada, the Grand Prix Final, and US Nationals. She showed signs of "old Alissa" when she fell several times at Four Continents but let's just hope that was a sigh of exhaustion rather than returning to old patterns. What I love about Alissa is that even though she doesn't have a triple-triple or a triple axel, she still often beats the "more technical" ladies in the technical elements scores with her high level and well executed spins and spirals. She is also just gorgeous to watch when she is 'on'. I'm praying that she can maintain her focus and just relax and skate the way she has the majority of the season. If she does that, I truly believe that she could find herself on the podium next week.

If you've been following my blogs or my twitter at all this season, you'll know that Rachael Flatt is the sentimental favorite for me. For some reason I relate to her and my heart goes out to her for how much she has struggled to impress the International judges. I've even said many times that "Rachael Flatt is my home girl", I've been on #teamflatt, and I've even lent her my signature catch phrase "kick it and stick it" via twitter. Rachael was quoted this week as saying that this World podium will come down, not to who goes clean, but to who wants it most and fights for it the hardest. If this proves true, Rachael has an advantage because I've not seen anyone fight as hard as she has this season, especially in that gorgeous new short program to East of Eden. Many criticized how freely she skated it at Nationals but I thought it was phenomenal and she needs to skate that short program, as well as her free skate, with the same reckless abandon next week in Moscow and she could find herself fighting for the podium. I only hope that the judges give her the marks she deserves and don't hold her down in the program components scores based on expectations and previous competitions.

Kanako Murakami, the youngster from Japan burst onto the senior scene this year in wonderful fashion, winning two Grand Prix medals, one of them gold, and a bronze at the Final. She also beat Japanese favorites Akiko Suzuki and Fumie Suguri at nationals to qualify for Worlds and she has a legitimate shot at the podium. I love that she is so mature and has not been phased by the high level of ladies she's competed against this season, yet she also maintains the youthful exuberance that won her the World Junior title last year, particularly in her Jumping Jack short program. She has struggled slightly with consistency in the free skate and that will be a huge factor in how she finishes next week. Nonetheless, because of her age she has a technical edge over most of these ladies and that will be a huge advantage.

As much as it pains me to say it, Carolina Kostner is always a threat for the podium. I have seen my fair share of figure skating and am fairly confidant in the ins and outs of the judging system, yet everything I see Kostner's scores I'm baffled. People complain that her PCS are too high, which I agree with, but what really confuses me are the technical elements scores, especially in the earlier events this year when she performed a very simple jump layout. Nonetheless, she will be a factor in the top group of ladies next week and now that she is supposedly performing the flip and lutz again, she'll be a threat for the podium in Moscow next week. I think she can finish anywhere between second and tenth depending on whether she keeps it together and how kind the judges are to her.

In The Hunt
Kiira Korpi is one of those ladies who will probably be in the second to last group after the short, but could also easily be in the first group. She did win Grand Prix Paris this season, was the first alternate to the Grand Prix Final, and also medaled at Europeans. She is a gorgeous lyrical skater and also has that triple-triple in her arsenal. One thing I think she lacks is the fight and the grit that it takes to make a champion, but she very well could bring that out and this would be the time to do it. 
Cynthia Phaneuf of Canada is another dark horse because she can triumph of self-destruct on any given occasion. What Korpi lacks in grit, Cynthia more than makes up for. She is ferocious and she is a fighter. She finished a surprise 5th at Worlds last year, 4th in both Grand Prix events this year, and 6th at Four Continents so she is definitely a threat to make the final group of ladies for the free skate.
Amelie Lacoste, also of Canada, is similar to Phaneuf in that she has a lot of fight in her. She too has had varied results this year with a bronze at Skate Canada, 5th at Skate America and a disappointing 9th at Four Continents. Actually, she is only competing at Worlds because Myrianne Samson withdrew, so this is her golden opportunity if she can grab on to it.
Elena Gedevanishvilli has been all over the place in the past few seasons and this year she took 6th at NHK Trophy, 7th at Skate America, and 8th at Europeans. Though her skating doesn't do much for me, she has my favorite coach ever, Robin Wagner, so I have to give her credit for that.
Sarah Hecken of Germany is another skater that seems to hang just below the ladies at the top level. Most of her Grand Prix finishes are 6th-8th and she was 12th at Worlds last year and 11th at Europeans this year. She'll have to go all out and make big moves to improve those placements this year.
Alena Leonova of Russia is someone who I think will go into the free skate in the second to last group and finish somewhere in that group as well. She is good enough to keep on that pace, but I don't see her finishing in the top 6. She did place 5th at Europeans this year, but she'll have a handful of Japanese, American, and Canadian women to contend with at home in Moscow  next week.
Ksenia Makarova is a skater I think could really benefit from home field advantage in Moscow next week. She certainly has Johnny Weir's support, that much is for sure. This is a big year for her as it is her last chance to go into World as the top Russian lady before the phenomenal juniors move up to the senior level.
The Rest of the Field
Cheltzie Lee (AUS): 20th at 2010 Olympics; 17th at 2010 Worlds; 10th at 2011 Four Continents
Belinda Schonberger (AUT): 18th at 2010 JGP Austria; 19th at 2010 JGP Germany; 12th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 11th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 2nd at 2011 Bavarian Open; 6th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Ira Vanut (BEL): 4th at 2010 JGP Austria; 3rd at 2010 JGP Germany; 4th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 2nd at 2011 Junior European Olympics
Hristina Vassileva (BUL): 18th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 12th at 2010 Golden Spin; 23rd at 2011 Europeans
Bingwa Geng (CHN): 5th at 2010 Cup of China; 5th at 2011 Asian Winter Games; 13th at 2011 Four Continents
Melinda Wang (TPE): 18th at 2011 Four Continents
Karina Johnson (DEN): 35th at 2010 Worlds; 6th at 2010 The Nordics; 10th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 15th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 7th at 2011 The Nordics; 17th at 2011 Europeans
Elena Glebova (EST): 21st at 2010 Olympics; 21st at 2010 Worlds; 6th at 2010 Finlandia Trophy; 10th at 2010 Cup of Russia; 7th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs; 7th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Juulia Turkkila (FIN): 5th Junior at 2010 The Nordics; 10th at 2010 JGP Germany; 7th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 3rd at 2011 The Nordics; 15th at 2011 Europeans
Mae Berenice Meite (FRA): 7th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 3rd at 2010 Coup de Nice; 8th at 2010 Skate America; 9th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 9th at 2011 Europeans
Jenna McCorkell (GBR): 29th at 2010 Olympics; 14th at 2010 Worlds; 5th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 11th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 10th at 2010 Skate America; 14th at 2011 Europeans
Georgia Glastris (GRE): 44th at 2010 Worlds; 21st at 2010 JGP Great Britain; 18th at 2010 JGP Czech; 18th at 2010 Golden Spin Zagreb
Tiffany Packard Yu (HKG): 25th at 2010 Merano Cup; 25th at 2011 Four Continents
Viktoria Pavuk (HUN): 8th at 2010 Crystal Cup; 11th at 2010 Golden Spin; 19th at 2011 Europeans
Clara Peters (IRL): 47th at 2010 Worlds; 22nd at 2010 Coup de Nice; 24th at 2010 Merano Cup; 27th at 2011 Europeans
Roberta Rodeghiero (ITA): 4th at 2010 Mont Blanc Trophy; 6th at 2010 O Nepala Memorial: 15th at 2010 Merano Cup; 16th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs; 6th at 2011 Winter Universiade; 3rd at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Fleur Maxwell (LUX): 33rd at 2010 Worlds; 13th at 2010 Merano Cup; 9th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 21st at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs; 10th at 2010 Golden Spin Zagreb; 22nd at 2011 Europeans
Mary Ro Reyes (MEX): 22nd at 2010 JGP Germany; 21st at 2010 Coup de Nice; 29th at 2011 Four Continents
Mericien Venzon (PHI): 23rd at 2010 JGP Japan; 11th at 2010 Asian Winter Games; 22nd at 2011 Four Continents
Min-Jeong Kwak (KOR): 13th at 2010 Olympics; 22nd at 2010 Worlds; 9th at 2010 Cup of China; 11th at 2010 Skate America; 3rd at 2011 Asian Winter Games; 8th at 2011 Four Continents
Sabina Mariouta (ROU): 27th at 2010 JGP France; 21st at 2010 JGP Brasov; 6th at 2010 Crystal Skate; 11th Junior at 2010 Santa Clause Cup; 21st Junior at 2010 European Youth Olympics;
Marina Seeh (SRB): 46th at 2010 Worlds; 18th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 15th at 2011 Bavarian Opeh;
Lejeanna Marais (RSA): 7th at 2010 Crystal Skate; 20th at 2011 Winter Universiade; 15th at 2011 Four Continents
Sonia Lafuente (ESP): 22nd at 2010 Olympics; 20th at 2010 Worlds; 10th at 2010 Skate Canada; 6th at 2010 Merano Cup; 7th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 1st at 2010 Golden Spin; 2nd at 2011 Winter Universiade; 12th at 2011 Europeans
Joshi Helgesson (SWE): 7th at 2010 Cup of China; 4th at 2010 Skate America; 6th at 2011 The Nordics; 2nd at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Viktoria Helgesson (SWE): 10th at 2010 Worlds; 9th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 6th at 2010 Skate America; 1st at 2010 Merano Cup; 1st at 2011 The Nordics; 6th at 2011 Europeans 
Bettina Heim (SUI): 32nd at 2010 Worlds; 8th at 2010 Mont Blanc; 14th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 9th at 2010 O Nepala; 4th at 2010 Crystal Skate; 13th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Taryn Jurgensen (THA): 20th at 2010 JGP France; 27th at 2011 Four Continents
Birce Atabey (TUR): 19th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 22nd at 2010 JGP Austria; 24th at 2010 JGP Germany; 16th at 2010 Ice Challenge; 28th at 2011 Europeans
Irina Movchan (UKR): 40th at 2010 Worlds; 6th at 2010 Ice Challenge; 16th at 2011 Winter Universiade; 26th at 2011 Europeans

2011 World Figure Skating Championships: Ice Dance Preview

As the 2011 World Championships kick off next week, the biggest story in ice dance will be the battle of the training mates: Davis & White vs. Virtue & Moir. With the recent retirement of top contenders Faiella & Scali and Kerr & Kerr, the rest of the top five seems to be up for grabs.

The Top Contenders

Virtue & Moir are my team to watch at Worlds next week. In my opinion, they hold all of the cards because if they perform at their best, I think they'll win another World gold. They well may have beaten Davis & White at Four Continents this season if they had not had to withdraw midway through the free skate due to injury. As much as I'd love to see Davis & White win, I think they lack the spark and heat that that their Canadian training mates have. Even if Virtue & Moir don't give their best performance, they should still place no lower than second.

Davis & White really do deserve the World title this year. They've gone undefeated all season and they've never stopped working to improve on their programs. However, I fear that they've become so good that they are almost robotic in their performance quality. They are so well trained that their presentation looks manufactured whereas that of Virtue & Moir is natural and effortless. I predict that Davis & White will take the top technical marks but Virtue & Moir will outscore them in components and the winner will be decided by the slightest of margins.

If Davis/White & Virtue/Moir are favorites for gold and silver, then the French team of Pechalat & Bourzat are favorites for bronze. They've been solid all season and have phenomenal programs, including a fiery short dance and a theatrical Charlie Chaplin free dance. I find them to be the most interesting to watch, in terms of sheer artistry and performance, of any of the world's top ice dance teams. I love their signature European quality. The are in a league of their own in the world in that they aren't quite up to the level of the Americans or Canadians, but they are well above the level of the next tier of ice dancers. I'll be floored if they do not make the podium in Moscow next week.

Though Ice Dance has become more objective in the past years, it is still one of the easiest disciplines to predict and I feel very confident that Bobrova & Soloviev will finish solidly in the top five next week. Home ice advantage will give them a boost, but they've been steadily improving all season and most importantly, they've scrapped that god awful "Delilah" short dance. Expect two very solid programs from them next week.

Although I hate to say it, Canada's Crone & Poirier very well may round out the top 5 next week in Moscow. For reasons I cannot understand, their free skate has been a favorite of the judges all season and even with their subpar short dance, they seem to always sneak back toward to top of the rankings after the free dance. However, they were beaten in a surprise by the young American Shibutani siblings and they also have great momentum going into Worlds so they too good complete the top 5. I have tried all season to enjoy this team but they really do nothing for me. Paul always looks very young and frail and Vanessa struggles to connect with him in a passionate or emotional way. She also has an odd way of moving her limbs, but then who am I to judge.

In The Hunt
As mentioned above, Maia & Alex Shibutani have been climbing all season and surprised the world with a silver medal at this year's Four Continents Championships. In only their first senior season, they've collected two Grand Prix bronze medals and a US silver medal in addition to their Four Continents silver. They are known for their speed and technique, with some of the best twizzles in the world, but they've really shown that they are performers as well. Their coaches Zoueva and Shpilband have given them two phenomenal programs that suit them perfectly and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them in the top 5 next week in Moscow.
Weaver & Poje of Canada have been one of my favorite teams all season and have what I consider to be the best short dance of the entire season. They've struggled in the free dance with silly mistakes that have taken them off the podium when they were in medal contention. If they can set themselves up with a strong short dance and get the level fours they got at Four Continents, and then follow it up with a clean free skate, they have top five potential.
Ilinykh & Katsalapov entered the senior ranks this year along with the Shibutani siblings but their debut was not quite as strong, though they did climb steadily. The placed fourth at NHK trophy and took the bronze at Cup of Russia after several withdrawals. They placed a very respectable fourth at the European Championships and they'll have the crowd behind them next week in Moscow. I find them to be extremely passionate and elegant and they too could move into the top five or six depending how other teams perform.
Chock & Zuerlein of the US are my favorite team and I am obsessed with their Cabaret free skate. They are such amazing performers but it seems they don't have the difficulty in lifts that the other American teams have. Their short dance is also a little weaker and they don't score as many level fours as the other top teams. Though I'd love them to place in the top group, I am forcing myself to be realistic and anywhere in the top eight would be an amazing finish for them.
Hoffman & Zavozin were the surprise qualifiers for the Grand Prix Final this season, though they did so because of a second place finish at Cup of Russia when the favorites withdrew due to injury. They are a nice enough team, though they don't do much for me personally. They finished a disappointing 8th at the European Championships and their highest total score of the season is just below that of Chock & Zuerlein.
Capellini & Lanotte of Italy have been thrust into the spotlight at their country's best hope in Ice Dance after the sudden retirement of Faiella & Scali. They placed 5th at NHK trophy this season, 2nd at the Nebelhorn Trophy and 1st at the Mont Blanc Trophy. They are big wild cards and could finish anywhere on the board depending on their performance.
The Rest of the Field
Obrien & Merriman (AUS): 9th at 2011 Four Continents Championships; 15th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 10th at 2010 O Nepala Trophy
Geil & Eisenbauer (AUT): 8th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 4th at 2010 Int Trophy of Lyon; 4th at 2011 Bavarian Open
Valadzenkava & Vakunkov (BLF): 5th at 2010 P. Roman Memorial; 10th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Tremasova & Lichev (BUL): 24th at 2011 Junior Worlds; 13th at 2010 JGP Great Britain; 16th at JGP Czech; 7th at 2010 Int Trophy Lyon
Huang & Zheng (CHN): 19th at 2010 Olympics; 5th at 2010 Cup of China; 5th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 6th at 2011 Four Continents; 1st at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Mysliveckova & Novak (CZE): 16th at 2010 Worlds; 8th at 2010 Mont Blanc Trophy; 7th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 2nd at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 6th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 5th at 2010 Cup of Russia; 1st at 2010 Golden Spin; 10th at 2011 Europeans
Good & Sorensen (DEN): 24th at 2010 Worlds; 14th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 9th at 2010 Finlandia Trophy
Carron & Jones (FRA): 12th at 2010 Worlds; 1st at 2010 Mont Blanc Trophy; 1st at 2010 Coup de Nice; 5th at 2010 Skate Canada; 1st at 2010 Coup de Nice; 4th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 9th at 2011 Worlds
Reed & Japaridze (GEO): 22nd at 2010 Olympics, 21st at 2010 Worlds; 2nd at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 4th at 2010 Golden Spin; 17th at 2011 Europeans
Zhiganshina & Gazsi (GER): 6th at 2010 Mont Blanc; 4th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 3rd at 2010 O Nepala Trophy; 2nd at 2010 NRW Trophy Ice Dance; 1st at 2010 R Roman Memorial; 1st at 2011 Bavarian Open; 7th at 2011 Europeans
Coomes & Buckland (GBR): 20th at 2010 Olympics; 4th at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 3rd at 2010 Coup de Nice; 8th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 8th at 2010 Skate America; 14th at 2011 Europeans
Walden & Edwards (GBR): 12th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 8th at 2010 O Nepala Trophy; 5th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 6th at 2010 NRW Ice Dance Trophy; 1st at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 1st at 2010 Int Trophy Lyon; 5th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Nagy & Fejes (HUN): 7th at 2010 O Nepala Trophy; 8th at 2010 Finlandia Trophy; 5th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 3rd at 2010 P Roman Memorial
Frieling & Rumi (ISR): 13th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 9th at 2010 O Nepala Trophy; 9th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 12th at 2010 Golden Spin; 6th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy; 20th at 2011 Europeans
Guignard & Fabbri (ITA): 4th at 2010 NRW Ice Dance Trophy; 3rd at 2010 Golden Spin; 3rd at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Reed & Reed (JPN): 17th at 2010 Olympics; 15th at 2010 Worlds; 7th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 7th at 2010 Skate America; 2nd at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Tobias & Stagniunas (LTU): 11th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 3rd at 2010 NRW Ice Dance Trophy; 12th at 2011 Europeans
Bruhns & Westenberger (MEX): 10th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 6th at 2010 Int Trophy Lyon; 10th at 2011 Four Continents
Hurtado & Diaz (ESP): 10th at JGP Great Britain; 5th at JGP Germany; 8th Junior at NRW Trophy Ice Dance; 11th at 2010 Golden Spin; 4th at 2011 Winter Universiade; 3rd at 2011 Bavarian Open; 15th at 2011 Europeans
Elsener & Roost (SUI): 25th at 2010 Europeans; 12th at 2010 Mont Blanc Trophy; 7th at 2010 JGP Austria; 13th at 2010 JGP Germany; 10th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 5th at 2011 Bavarian Open; 19th at 2011 Europeans
Heekin-Crane & Shakalov (UKR): 5th at 2010 Mont Blanc; 10th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 6th at 2010 Finlandia Trophy; 4th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 3rd at Int Trophy Lyon; 4th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy; 11th at 2011 Europeans

2011 World Figure Skating Championships: Mens Preview

Because of the preliminary round, the men are actually the first to take the ice in this year's World Figure Skating Championships in Moscow, Russia. Preliminaries begin Monday April 25th at 6:00am EST with the short program on Wednesday April 27th at 5:30am and the free skate Thursday April 28th at 5:00am. This is a tough event to call because a lot of the men who put up the big scores have also been volatile and self-destructive this season. The quad(s) will play a big role in this competition and give a huge advantage to the men who land them. Many questions will be answered when this event concludes, not limited to the following.... Can the Japanese men sweep the podium? Will Patrick Chan finally live up to his potential? Is Brian Joubert still relevant? Did the US make the right decision in sending men with limited international experience? Can Artur Gachinski live up to the hype as "the next Plushenko"?
The Contenders

Patrick Chan of Canada is a sentimental favorite for me because he has so much talent but rarely skates to his full potential. My heart goes out to him every time he falls because I know that he has it in him to win each time he steps onto the ice. His free program at Canadian Nationals was out of this world and if he performs that way in Moscow, he'll take the gold easily. Nobody tells a story through their programs like Patrick does, and being a person of the theatre, the storytelling is the most important part of the program for me. I would never put money on Patrick because he is still not know for his consistency, but something tells me this is his year. The world title is there and its his if he just has the courage to seize it.

One of the people who can stop Chan from realizing his golden potential is someone who has done it before, reigning  world champion Daisuke Takahashi of Japan. Daisuke started off the season with a solid win at NHK and followed up with another win at Skate America, though in a rather messy fashion. Japanese nationals was a splat-fest for all of the top men, but Daisuke finally pulled it together again with an impressive win at Four Continents. If he can get his quad under control he will be a real threat for gold. Patrick and Daisuke are both phenomenal performers, but if Patrick lands both quads, he'll have the technical edge. There is talk of Takahashi retiring after this season so I'd like to see him go out with another world medal.

Takahiko Kozuka, the youngest of the top Japanese men has arguably been the most consistent of the bunch this season. With two Grand Prix wins, he was the top qualifier for the Final and took home a bronze. If he can improve on his confidence and performance skills he'll be able to fill the shoes of Takahashi when he retires. Kozuka has a good shot at the podium of he goes clean in both programs which he did twice this season on the Grand Prix and can certainly do again.

Nobunari Oda is probably the most volatile of the Japanese men. He has some of the biggest jumps in the world, especially for a smaller guy, but when he is not "on" he programs can get really rough really fast. He is primarily a technical skater so when the jumps aren't happening, he can't rely on high components scores like Chan or Takahashi. Nobu had such a bad short program last year at worlds that he failed to qualify for the free skate and he has been known to change his programs on the fly and add illegal jump combinations that take away precious points. But he has had a strong season so far with two Grand Prix silver medals and a silver at the final. If he lands all of his jumps and doesn't do any funny business with combinations, he could find himself on the podium.

One of the questions on the minds of figure skating fans everywhere is, can Brian Joubert come back? He has been one of the top men in the world for at least six or seven seasons but never won an Olympic medal. He had a disastrous Grand Prix this season but came back to win French Nationals and the silver at Europeans. If he can maintain his technical level and keep doing the quads, I'd love to see him stay in through 2014 and go for an Olympic medal in Sochi. He performance at Worlds this year will be a good test of how relevant he is against the younger up and coming men. If he skates clean, the judges will probably give him the scores necessary to stand on the podium, but he'll have to do his part and land his jumps.

It pains me to say that Florent Amodio is one of the top contenders' in men's figure skating, but nonetheless the judges like him. Not only does he not have the quad, but in my opinion there is not much substance at all in his programs. His short program is good when he lands his jumps (note that Alissa Czisny outscored him in the short program at the Grand Prix Final) but his free skate is what my people call a hot tranny mess. Not only are the musical cuts between the four songs horrendous, but he does more gyrating in place than actual skating. I understand he is trying to channel Michael  Jackson, but the late great Michael had content in his performances, not just fluff. Though I know I won't agree with it, Amodio has top five potential.

Tomas Verner has my favorite mens short program of the season because it is so stylized and his so committed to his character in Singin In The Rain down to his use of the "prop" umbrella throughout the program. I like his Michael Jackson free skate better than Amodio's and I think he is a stronger skater overall. He beat Patrick Chan at Cup of Russia which shows that he can capitalize on others' mistakes, which could be the key to a good placement at Worlds. He also won bronze at Europeans this year so he has great momentum going into Moscow. He, however, cannot afford to  make mistakes like some men can and will need two clean programs. I don't see him landing on the podium this year but he could have a top five finish.
In The Hunt

Oh Ryan Bradley, what to do with you? He is one of the biggest wildcards in this field. We've seen him finish as low as 18th in previous years, but he also has the potential to finish on the podium if he lands his quad in the short program and his two quads in the free skate. His program components are also up in the air because many think he doesn't have the best skating skills or edges. He is known to be quite a showman, but one never can tell how judges will interpret his performance style. If he keeps his head about him, his technical score can be one of the highest in the mens event. He will be attempting 3 quads total, the same as Patrick Chan, his current training mate. It seems that working alongside Chan has boosted Bradley's competitive edge and confidence and I wish him the best of luck in Moscow.

Richard Dornbush was the surprise of US Nationals this season when he put together two solid programs to secure a silver medal and a berth on the World team. His success shouldn't have been a shock as he dominated the Junior Grand Prix circuit and won the final, posting one of the highest total scores of the entire season. He seems very confident and he really has nothing to lose by going all out in Moscow next week. Reports from practice state that he has been looking extremely solid and consistent. Other men in the competition have been extremely volatile this season and if Richard keeps it together, he could sneak into that final group.
Kevin Van Der Perren of Belgium is one of the oldest skaters in the competition. He actually tried to retire last season but his federation convinced him to stay in for one year. He is an amazing jumper and you can always count on him for a quad, but his artistry is lacking. Anywhere in the top ten would be a great finish for Kevin.
Kevin Reynolds of Canada is similar to Van Der Perren in that he is known for his jumping ability and not his presentation. He became the first man to do two quads in a short program this season and if he can do that  in Moscow, the TES alone should place him very high after the short. The long program will be the real test for him.
Michal Brezina placed just off the podium in 4th at last year's Worlds, but missed this season's Grand Prix due to injury. The delay of Worlds may have been just what Michal needed in order to fully recover and return to he shape he was in at last year's Worlds.
Samuel Contesti of Italy is another dark horse because his results can vary greatly from competition to competition. He finished 18th at the 2010 Olympics, but then came back to finish 7th at Worlds. His best finishes this season were 4th at Cup of Russia, and 6th at both Cup of China and Europeans.
Artur Gachinski has been touted as Russia's heir apparent to Evgeni Plushenko and he has shown signs of future success, but still is not considered among the top men in the world. He has been improving all season, placing 7th at Skate Canada, 6th at Cup of Russia, and 5th at Europeans. If he continues this steady climb he could place well at Worlds, especially on home ice. Though it would take a huge upset for him to medal, he can help Russia by securing a spots for 2 Russian men at next year's Worlds.
Spain's Javier Fernandez has one of my favorite free skates of the season, set to Pirates of the Caribbean, but he has had highs and lows this year. He placed an impressive 5th at Skate Canada but fell to 9th at Cup of Russia and Europeans. The quad is a huge factor for Javier because it sets the tone for his free skate. He also needs a respectable short program so he is in the top two groups going into the free.
Ross Miner of the US a true wildcard because he placed 9th at NHK Trophy this year and 7th at Cup of China, but pulled out two perfect programs to win bronze at the US championships over some of the top men in the world. I hope he goes into this competition with no expectations, as he did at US Nationals, and he may just sneak toward the top if the other men crumble.
The Rest of the Field
Sarkis Hayrapetyan (ARM): 42nd at 2010 Worlds; 2nd Junior at 2011 Nestle Kangus Cup; 5th Junior at 2011 Dragon Cup
Mark Webster (AUS): 39th at 2010 Worlds; 16th at 2011 Four Continents
Viktor Pfeifer (AUT): 21st at 2010 Olympics; 20th at 2010 Worlds; 18th at 2011 Europeans; 13th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 5th at 2010 Nepala Memorial Trophy; 12th at 2010 Skate America
Vitali Buchanok (BLR): 3rd at 2010 Junior Worlds; 23rd at 2011 Four Continents; 11th at 2010 JGP Brasov Cup; 1st Junior at 2010 Tirnavia Ice Cup; 1st Junior at 2010 Warsaw Cup
Jorik Hendrickx (BEL): 13th at 2011 Junior Worlds; 16th at 2011  Four Continents; 7th at 2010 JGP Austria; 6th at 2010 JGP Austria; 5th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs
Georgi Kenchadze (BUL): 40th at 2010 Worlds; 20th at 2011 Europeans; 21st at 2010 Coup de Nice; 13th at 2010 Merano Cup
Joey Russell (CAN): 14th at 2011 Four Continents; 6th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy
Nan Song (CHN): 9th at 2011 Four Continents; 10th at 2010 Skate America; 6th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 3rd at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Stephen Li-Chung Kuo (TPE): 37th at 2010 Worlds; 20th at 2011 Four Continents
Justus Strid (DEN): 28th at 2011 Europeans; 6th at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 16th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 7th at 2011 Nordics Copenhagen; 4th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Bela Papp (FIN): 22nd at 2011 Junior Worlds; 14th at 2010 JGP Brasov; 16th at 2010 JGP Dresden; 8th at 2011 The Nordics
Peter Liebers (GER): 15th at 2010 Worlds; 11th at 2011 Europeans; 3rd at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 4th at 2010 Coup de Nice; 9th at 2010 Cup of China; 7th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris
David Richardson (GBR): 12th at 2011 Europeans; 7th at 2010 Mont Blanc Trophy; 8th at 2010 O Nepala Trophy; 7th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz
Harry Hau Yin Lee (HKG): 20th at 2010 Junior Worlds; 22nd at 2010 JGP Karuizawa; 11 at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Tigran Vardanjan (HUN): 41st at 2010 Worlds; 14th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 9th at 2010 Golden Spin
Maxim Shipov (ISR): 43rd at 2010 Worlds; 23rd at 2011 Europeans; 11th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 10th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 7th at 2010 Golden Spin Zagreb; 5th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Paolo Bacchini (ITA): 20th at 2010 Olympics; 12th at 2011 Europeans; 8th at 2010 Finlandia Trophy; 12th at 2010 Skate Canada; 2nd at 2010 Merano Cup; 7th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Denis Ten (KAZ): 11th at 2010 Olympics; 13th at 2010 Worlds; 12th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 11th at 2010 Skate America; 1st Junior at 2010 Nestle Kangus Cup; 1st at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Kim Lucine (MON): 17th at 2011 Europeans; 2nd at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 4th at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 7th at 2010 Merano Cup
Min-Seok Kim (KOR): 23rd at 2010 Worlds; 15th at 2011 Four Continents; 11th at 2010 JGP Austria; 12th at 2010 JGP Dresden; 9th at 2011 Asian Winter Games
Alexander Majorov (SWE):  3rd at 2011 Four Continents; 3rd at 2011 Junior Worlds; 2nd at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 5th at 2010 JGP Karuizawak; 3rd at 2010 JGP Czech; 1st at 2010 Ice Challenge Graz; 1st at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs; 1st at 2011 The Nordics
Adrian Schultheiss (SWE): 15th at 2010 Olympics; 9th at 2010 Worlds; 13th at 2011 Europeans; 4th at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 10th at 2010 NHK Trophy; 7th at 2010 Skate America; 2nd at 2011 The Nordics; 2nd at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Mikael Redin (SUI): 6th at 2010 Month Blanc Trophy; 6th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 7th at O Nepala Memorial; 3rd at 2010 Crystal Skate; 5th at 2011 Bavarian Open
Kutay Eryoldas (TUR): 31st at 2010 Worlds; 13th at 2010 Triglav Trophy; 23rd at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy; 4th at 2010 Crystal Skate; 18th at 2011 Winter Universiade
Anton Kovalevski (UKR): 24th at 2010 Olympics; 16th at 2010 Worlds; 15th at 2011 Europeans; 3rd at 2010 O Nepala Memorial; 12th at 2010 Cup of Russia; 8th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris; 3rd at 2010 Golden Spin Zagreb
Misha Ge (UZB): 12th at 2011 Four Continents; 6th at 2011 Asian Winter Games

2011 World Figure Skating Championships: Pairs Preview

The 2011 World Figure Skating Championships kick off in Moscow, Russia in just over a week. The pairs take the ice on Wednesday April 27th at 11:30am for their short program with the free skate on Thursday April 28th starting at 10:00 am. All of these times are US Eastern Standard Time. The complete event schedule can be found here. http://icemusings.blogspot.com/2011/03/moscow-world-championships-schedule.html
The pairs competition seems to be the easiest to predict based on the results of the season thus far. The top teams have been very consistent and in pairs more than in any other discipline, there is a very distinct break between the top four or five teams in the world and the next flight of six or seven teams that could contend for a top five finish if other teams make mistakes.
The Top Contenders

Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy of Germany already have a world gold under their belts from 2009 and they have not been beaten overall in competition all season. The world title is clearly theirs to lose. They won by large margins in both of their Grand Prix events and even in the Grand Prix Final over Pang & Tong. The only team that came close to beating them was Kavaguti & Smirnov at the European Championships. In my opinion, nobody in the world can beat a clean Savchenko & Szolkowy so if you ask me, they truly hold their fate in their hands. At 27 and 31 they seem to be at the height of their physical abilities so I can see them staying in for the next 3 seasons. If they do happen to miss gold, it would take a complete and utter meltdown for them to miss the podium in Moscow.

Those who know me and follow my blog/twitter know I have not been the biggest fan of Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov but I do truly love their Claire de Lune free skate this season. It is fluid, elegant, and oh so "Russian." They only competed in one Grand Prix event this season and won easily at Cup of Russia. They came so close to Savchenko & Szolkowy at Europeans, beating them in the free skate, but had to settle for silver. I would actually like to see them take the world title, but I think they'll yet again play second fiddle to the Germans and face stiff competition from their fellow Russian pairs, though the home crowd will be on their side.

Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov of Russia are the new kids in town on the pairs circuit, but while their partnership is young, they each have a wealth of experience from previous pairings and seem to have meshed very well. I have yet to see them skate together but I've heard great things, and both were the stronger half of their previous partnerships so they seem to make sense as a couple. Many think they can win a world title but I think it takes more than a few months to truly mesh as a pair and I think 3rd or 4th place is a more realistic expectation in their first Worlds together.

Qing Pang & Jian Tong have been a favorite pair team of mine for years but they have made so many uncharacteristic mistakes this season and they look so exhausted. They finished second to the Germans at the Grand Prix Final by a large margin so it will be a very tall order for them to defend their world title. The Russian teams will also present a huge challenge and I expect them to finish around 3rd or 4th. They plan to take the Shen/Zhao route and take a full year off, though they haven't announced which year, before coming back for the Sochi games and I think that year of rest will do wonders for them.

Vera Bazarova & Yuri Larionov of Russia are without a doubt my favorite pair team in the world because of their soft elegance and their delicate lines. They have that undeniable "Russian" quality and remind me of the great Gordeeva & Grinkov. I am happy to see Russian pairs return to glory and it is very likely that all three teams can place in the top 5 at this year's Worlds. This team is very young and they will have a long future ahead of them even after the current top Russian pairs retire. They had a strong season with two Grand Prix silver medals, a 4th place finish at the Grand Prix Final, a bronze at Europeans, and a bronze at Russian nationals. A top five finish at Worlds would be the perfect way to cap off an outstanding season and set them up for a great 2011-2012 season.
Teams In The Hunt

Caitlin Yankowskas & John Coughlin are the reigning US champions and they will need to finish 6th or better if they hope to help the US qualify a third pair to World next season. This is entirely doable if they skate to the best of their abilities technically and emotionally as they did at US Nationals. They had a great Grand Prix season but a weak showing at Four Continents left them in 4th. That was not entirely bad though because it showed that they could still accomplish a respectable finish with mistakes, meaning they could have top five potential with two perfect skates. Aside from the top 5 contenders, their main competition will come from the two Canadian teams, Takahahi/Tran and Evora/Ladwig. According to John's twitter, their training is going great and they'll be in great shape in Moscow.

Though Yankowskas/Coughlin are the current US champions, Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig are on virtually the same level internationally. If they are perfect, they actually have the potential to beat some of the best in the world based on the levels and grades of execution they get on some of their lifts and other pair elements, but they are prone to mistakes. Amanda was distracted due to a death in the family and  Mark fought a broken skate lace so their showing at Four Continents was disappointing, but if they can bounce back, they have the potential to place in the top six or seven. If their placement added to that of Yankowskas & Coughlin adds up to thirteen or less, they will qualify a 3rd US pair team to the 2012 World Championships.

Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch of Canada made me love them at the beginning of the seasons as they seemingly burst out of nowhere to claim two Grand Prix silver medals, yet never without mistakes. They struggled at the Grand Prix Final yet won Canadian Nationals in impressive fashion. They followed up with yet another disappointing showing at Four Continents. They remind me so much of American pairs in that they give us glimpses of greatness yet can't seem to show two perfect programs in the same competition. They can place anywhere from 5th to 10th depending on what shape they are in next week in Moscow.

I didn't really follow Canadian Nationals so I was floored to see Meagan Duhamel & Eric Radford win the silver at Four Continents after an underwhelming international debut at Skate Canada. There was a lot of controversy in the blogosphere over whether they should have gotten full credit for their side by side triple flips, which are more difficult jumps than most pairs attempt. Either way, that was a mistake-filled competition, and skating clean was enough to make the podium. That will not be enough at Worlds and I'm not convinced that this team is the real deal yet, so their performances next week should tell us whether they are a one hit wonder or if they truly have staying power.

They young Japanese pair of Narumi Takahashi & Mervin Tran has been over-hyped in my opinion, but then again they are very solid for their age. They won two senior Grand Prix medals this season and won the junior Grand Prix Final, as well as bronze at junior worlds. Because they have competed on both the junior and senior circuits this season, I think they are exhausted and that showed through in their 7th place finish at this year's Four Continents. Though many already consider them a top pair in the world, I still think they'll finish behind the Americans & Canadians and round out the top ten. Nevertheless, it will be a great experience for them to compete at senior Worlds and then get some much needed rest in the off season.

Stefania Berton & Ondrej Hotarek of Italy were not really on my radar until they finished 5th at this year's European Championships, which is especially impressive as Europe is once again becoming the hotbed of pairs skating that it once was. Looking back, they did place a respectable 11th at last year's senior worlds and 6th at this season's Cup of Russia. They'll look to improve on that 11th place finish, but it will be very difficult to break into the top 10.

Maylin Hausch & Daniel Wende of Germany are another team looking to break into a very tight top ten. They finished 14th at last year's worlds and have been steadily climbing this season from 7th at NHK Trophy to 3rd at Grand Prix Paris and 6th at Europeans. The success of their countrymen has to have been a great motivation for them and assuming they win gold or silver, Hausch and Wende need only place 11th or 12th to qualify a third German team for next year's worlds.
The Rest of the Field
Stina Martini & Severin Kiefer (AUT): 8th at 2010 Ice Challange, 8th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs, 15th at 2011 Europeans, 5th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy, 16th at 2011 World Juniors (Personal Best Total Score: 100.87)
Lubov Bakirova & Mikalai Kamianchuk (BLR): 8th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy, 7th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs, 10th at 2011 Europeans (Personal Best Total Score: 120.72)
Alexandra Malakhova & Leri Kenchadze (BUL): 8th at 2010 Golden Spin, 4th at 2011 Mont Blanc Trophy
Huibo Dong & Yiming Wu (CHN): 7th at 2010 Skate Canada, 7th at 2010 Cup of China, 2nd at 2011 Winter Universiade, 10th at 2011 Four Continents (Personal Best Total Score: 146.49)
Yue Zhang & Lei Wang (CHN): 8th at 2010 NHK Trophy, 3rd at 2011 Winter Universiade, 9th at 2011 Four Continents (Personal Best Total Score: 147.89)
Klara Kadlekova & Petr Bidar (CZE): 7th at 2010 JGP Austria, 7th at JGP 2010 Great Britain, 4th at 2010 Coupe de Nice, 6th at 2010 Ice Challenge, 6th at 2010 Grand Prix Paris, 7th at 2011 Europeans, 8th at 2011 World Juniors (Personal Best Total Score: 139.94)
Natalja Zabijako & Sergei Kulbach (EST): 5th at 2010 NRW Trophy Singles Pairs, 13th at 2011 Europeans (Personal Best Total Score: 106.47)
Adeline Canac & Yannick Bonheur (FRA): 5th at 2010 Ice Challenge, 3rd at NRW Trophy Singles Pairs, 9th at 2011 Europeans (Personal Best Total Score: 125.34)
Stacey Kemp & David King (GBR): 5th at 2010 Coupe de Nice, 8th at 2010 Skate Canada, 8th at 2010 Skate America, 8th at 2011 Europeans (Personal Best Total Score: 139.94)
Danielle Montalbano & Evgeni Krasnopolski (ISR): 9th at 2010 Nebelhorn Trophy, 7th 15 2010 Ice Challenge, 6th at 2010 Golden Spin

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