US Nationals Preview: Senior Pairs Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior pairs competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some large disparities in scores for certain teams from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each skaters top short program score and top free skate score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each team matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would still rise to the top if each pair would happen to match their season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIO
Yankowskas/Coughlin: 57.86 (CC) + 108.86 (CC) = 166.72
Denney/Barrett: 58.49 (SA) + 107.93 (SA) = 166.42
Evora/Ladwig: 52.58 (CR) + 110.27 (CR) = 162.85
Castelli/Shnapir: 56.34 (SC) + 106.09 (SA) = 162.43
Marley/Brubaker: 56.51 (NQC) + 99.96 (NQC) = 156.47
Simpson/Miller: 50.28 (CR) + 95.50 (CR) = 145.78
Zhang/Toth: 48.13 (SA) + 86.55 (TEB) + 134.58

WORST CASE SCENARIO
Marley/Brubaker: 56.51 (NQC) + 99.96 (NQC) = 156.47
Yankowskas/Coughlin: 54.19 (NHK) + 100.69 (NHK) = 154.88
Denney/Barrett: 55.03 (NHK) + 97.335 (NHK) = 152.38
Evora/Ladwig: 51.46 (CC) + 100.20 (CC) + 151.66
Castelli/Shnapir: 47.24 (SA) + 103.51 (SC) = 150.75
Simpson/Miller: 46.39 (SC) + 87.66 (SC) = 134.05 
Zhang/Toth: 40.93 (TEB) + 78.57 (SA) = 119.50


Since there is some variation in placements, here are some things to consider:

• Yankowskas/Coughlin and Evora/Ladwig are the only US pair teams to medal on the senior Grand Prix so they have great momentum going in
• Denney/Barrett have put up some of the highest scores this season, but it is also incredibly hard to defend a national championship, especially in pairs
• Castelli/Shnapir perhaps have more potential than any other team and if they can hit all of their elements in both programs, which they have yet to do this season, they will make the podium
• Marley/Brubaker are definitely the dark horses and if they can improve their free skate scores, they may just surprise everyone and make the podium