US Nationals Preview: Senior Ladies Best and Worst Case Scenarios

After compiling a list of this season's scores for US senior ladies competing on the grand prix circuit, I noticed some large disparities in scores for certain skaters from competition to competition so I though it would be fun to combine each skaters top short program score and top free skate score from different competitions to project what may happen at nationals if each skater matches their season's best. On the flip side, I thought it would be interesting to see who would rise to the top if each lady would happen to match her season's low score. So here are the results, take from them what you will, and ask yourself are you an optimist or a pessimist?

BEST CASE SCENARIO
Alissa Czisny: 63.76 (GPF) + 116.99 (GPF) = 180.75 
Mirai Nagasu: 58.78 (TEB) + 109.07 (TEB) = 167.85 
Christina Gao: 58.07 (JGP Austria) + 109.07 (JGP Austria) = 167.14
Ashley Wagner: 56.17(CR) + 110.82 (CR) = 167.02
Rachael Flatt: 53.69 (NHK) + 111.84 (SA) = 165.53
Yasmin Siraj: 55.66 (JGP Great Britain) + 106.09 (JGP Great Britain) = 161.75
Vanessa Lam: 53.05 (JGP Czech) + 103.36 (JGP Czech) = 156.41
Agnes Zawadzki: 56.92 (SC) + 98.06 (SC) = 154.35
Kiri Baga: 50.06 (JGP Japan) + 88.61 (JGP Japan) = 138.70
Caroline Zhang: 50.71 (NHK) + 83.15 (NHK) = 133.86
Amanda Dobbs: 46.73 (CC) + 85.72 (CC) = 132.45
Kristiene Gong: 47.24 (JGP Final) + 83.02 (JGP Romania) = 130.26
Alexe Gilles: 44.86 (SA) + 84.62 (SC) = 129.48
Felicia Zhang: 45.95 (JGP Germany) + 77.21 (JGP Germany) 123.16
Kristine Musademba: 40.80 (CC) + 78.65 (CC) = 119.45


WORST CASE
Alissa Czisny: 55.50 (TEB) + 104.30 (TEB) = 159.80
Vanessa Lam: 53.05 (JGP Czech) + 103.36 (JGP Czech) = 156.41
Agnes Zawadzki: 56.84 (CR) + 96.94 (CR) = 153.78 
Mirai Nagasu: 58.76 (CC) + 87.47 (CC) = 146.23
Christina Gao: 43.98 (JGP Final) + 101.03 (JGP Final) = 145.01

Ashley Wagner: 52.93 (NHK) + 90.80 (NHK) = 143.72

Kiri Baga: 49.74 (JGP Czech) + 87.54 (JGP Czech) = 137.28

Caroline Zhang: 50.66 (SA) + 81.83 (SA) = 132.49

Amanda Dobbs: 46.73 (CC) + 85.72 (CC) = 132.45

Yasmin Siraj: 38.08 (JGP Final) + 92.87 (JGP Final) = 130.95

Kristiene Gong: 47.08 (JGP Romania) + 82.66 (JGP Final) = 129.74

Rachael Flatt: 45.19 (GPF) + 82.38 (GPF) = 127.57

Felicia Zhang: 45.95 (JGP Germany) + 77.21 (JGP Germany) 123.16

Kristine Musademba: 40.80 (CC) + 78.65 (CC) = 119.45

Alexe Gilles: 41.02 (SC) + 77.60 (SA) = 118.62

Since the best and worst case scenarios deliver strikingly different results, I wanted to discuss some extenuating factors that may affect the results at Nationals:

• Rachael Flatt's low short program scores have placed her around 5th in total scores, but she will be debuting a new short program at Nationals which, if skated clean, could keep her in contention
• Mirai Nagasu and Rachael  Flatt have been fighting injuries this season which could explain some lower scores
• Agnes Zawadzki made her senior grand prix debut this season and inexperience and nerves could have contributed to her poor free skates
• Caroline Zhang has been reworking her jumping technique this season which explains some of her weak performances